Stat of the Day, 18th February 2015
I've received plenty of very nice messages about yesterday's pick, but credit given where credit's due, as I thought 6lb claimer James Cowley rode pretty much the perfect race on Nefyn Bay at Wetherby.
Sent off at the same 4/1 odds I'd advised, the newspapers/internet will tell you he won by half a length, but the win was due to James keeping his mount handily placed out of danger on the final circuit.
He waited for the right moment to take the lead and quickly kicked on to open a bit of a gap and although the pack closed back in, that little burst of speed had done the trick at just the right time.
Evening All-Weather action now awaits us in Wednesday's...
A lowly Class 7 handicap over a mile, where Nouvelle Ere is the current 7/2 BOG market leader with Bet365, as he attempts a second successive win inside the last fortnight.
He runs off a mark of 50 today, 4lbs higher than his win last time out, but with a claimer jockey taking 3lbs off, he's effectively only a pound worse off for a 1.5 length victory. Scheduled to carry 9-7 before the claim, the 3lb allowance will come in very handy, as...
... Male A/W runners who won last time out and now carry 8-0 to 9-7 off a mark lower than 58 over 5 to 14 furlongs, have won 238 times from 1103 attempts since 2008. This 21.6% strike rate has generated modest profits of 87.8pts at an ROI of 8% in the process and whilst 8% isn't fantastic, it certainly beats the banks and is a good return from blindly backing over 1100 horses.
We can (and will!), of course, look at the figures in more detail to see how they fit today's contest and we can quickly see the following:
ODDS: those priced 15/8 to 10/1 are 159/782 (20.3% SR) for 135.4pts (+17.3% ROI)
DAYS: those who last ran (and won) 6 to 25 days ago are 178/791 (22.5% SR) for 138.6pts (+17.5% ROI)
CLASS MOVE: those horses dropping a class from that last run are 20/73 ( 27.4% SR) for 30pts (+41.1% ROI)
TRACK: those running here at Kempton are 64/293 (21.8% SR) for 39.4pts (+13.5% ROI)
You can mix and match those subsets to your heart's content, but it's also interesting to note that those running at 16/1 or shorter within 6 to 25 days of their last outing are 131/663 (19.8% SR) for 164.2pts at an ROI of 24.8% and runners at Kempton priced below 6/1 with that same time gap are 34/109 (31.2% SR) for 46.2pts (+42.4% ROI).
As well as being the favourite, he's also the top rated (OR)...
Which could be a good sign, as top rated (OR) males in Class 6/7 A/W races here at Kempton have won 114 of 661 races (17.25% SR) for profits of 208.5pts at an ROI of 31.6% since the start of 2010 when they were dropping down a class.
Of these, horses priced from 6/4 to 9/2 won 53 of 194 (27.3% SR) and generated level stakes profits of 32.8pts (+16.9% ROI) and race favourites won 46 of 116 (39.7% SR) for 27.6pts (+23.8% ROI), leading us to the inexorable point that...
...favourites in such races priced from 6/4 to 9/2 went on to win 27 of 79 (34.2% SR) races and produced profits of 24.6pts at an ROI of 31.1%.
Nouvelle Ere is trained by Tony Carroll, who is already having a great year on the A/W saddling up 14 winners from his 72 A/W handicappers since New Year with the resultant 19.4% strike rate yielding 45.3pts profit at an ROI of 62.8%, of which he is 9/24 (37.5% SR) for 8.4pts (+35% ROI) with runners priced at 9/2 or shorter.
He'll be looking to make it number 15 for the year today and I'll be supporting him via a 1pt win bet on Nouvelle Ere at 7/2 BOG with Bet365. For a full market picture, simply...
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