Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

Thursday's Result :

2.50 Exeter : Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG PU at 5/2 (Chased leaders, weakened before 5 out, behind when pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's selection runs in the...

1.20 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has proven to useful and versatile in his doszen outings to date, winning one of his two bumpers and finishing as runner-up in the other. He ten raced 8 times over hurdles winning once and making the frame on four other occasions, before a recent switch to the larger obstacles.

He has finished second in both chases starts to date, both at this Class 3 level and over 2m on soft ground, notably staying on well last time out when getting within 1.75 lengths of the in-form Sir Valentino 16 days ago. The latter has since stepped up to Class 2 and won again as recently as Wednesday, suggesting Ozzy Thomas' effort last time was a decent one.

Other than this collateral form, he has the benefit of being trained by Henry Oliver, one of that rare breed of trainers who is profitable to follow blindly after more than 250 runners. More precisely, 277 runners to date, from which there has already been 44 winners (15.9% SR) and profits of 106.7pts at an ROI of 38.5% from level stakes betting : impressive stuff!

There are, however, certain angles to explore that would maximise return from a smaller number of bets, for example...

  • male runners are 40/247 (16.2% SR) for 121.3pts (+49.1% ROI)
  • those running at 2m to 2m 4.5f are 43/226 (19% SR) for 153.5pts (+67.9% ROI)
  • handicappers are 41/204 (20.1% SR) for 81.6pts (+40% ROI)
  • those racing 16 to 45 days since their last run are 30/151 (19% SR) for 141.7pts (+93.9% ROI)

And a simple to follow Henry Oliver micro-system? Go on then, it's almost Christmas! 😀

Henry Oliver's male handicappers racing over 2 miles to 2m 4.5f, 11 to 45 days since their last outing are 29/107 (27.1% SR) for 117.3pts (+109.6% ROI). Today's jockey Jaems Davies is 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 67.6pts (+37% ROI) from those 107 runners.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.10pm?

A 1pt win bet on Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG with any one of at least eight firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

  1. dave001

    getting a bit dissapointing this and im trying not to judge but apart from missing a 5/1 winning bet if you can bet at bog last saturday since ive started ive bet 22 selections for 2 winners and a net loss of 14pts , while i understand you will have losers at the prices a lot better stike rate is needed to turn a profit;
    the last few selections would have done better not starting
    lets hope for a improvement for the rest of december

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Dave

      If you’ve joined us recently, then I can certainly understand your disappointment. It’s been a tough time lately. But we’ve made close on 100 points profit this year in total, so the bigger picture looks a lot rosier. I fully appreciate that doesn’t help newcomers, and can see that the short-term impression is not great.

      At times like this, it might help to look at the full story, which can be seen here: http://www.geegeez.co.uk/join-geegeez-gold/tipping/

      Matt

    2. James Cross

      How you deal with losing runs is what makes or breaks you in this game in my opinion.

      They are inevitable no matter what approach you take or which service you follow.

      If you have a sensible betting bank in place to take account of expected losing runs and don’t alter your stakes then you should be fine.

      Stick with it, it will turn.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      You’re probably not far off the mark.
      The weather certainly hasn’t helped and that mixed with some indifferent performances and more than our fair share of bad luck means I’m actually surprised to not have lost more points than we have.

      However, punting (especially the approaches I take) is a long term project and my alarm bells aren’t ringing after a difficult couple of months. We massively overachieved in the first three quarters of this year and this is just an expected redressing of the balance in my eyes.

  2. Everyone calls me Paul

    I guess the recent downturn after the earlier outperformance also shows the importance of relying on more than one source of bets (whether your own are included or not). I’ve been no more than level the last two months, but that’s not bad for a downturn. Hopefully, all three of the main services I follow will never have a really bad run at the same time!
    Paul

  3. jethro

    No worries, tomorrow is Saturday and that is a day that has been favourable to us in recent weeks! Only a matter of time – it will turn around again as always…

  4. Blokeshead

    There have been many days in the last two months (as well as in two 2-week periods this spring and autumn) where the SotD horse has been the only thing I’ve bet on.

    If Chris and/or Matt were to cost me 14 points a month for six or seven months, I might reconsider this, as that will be the point I would stop playing with other people’s money that I’ve earned/taken/stolen from them this year. But probably not, since the service has made me a lot more than 100 points since I started following it religiously.

    There are fairly frequent bad runs, and it’s amazing how much stick both Matt and especially Chris take then. Each must have the hide of the proverbial rhinocerous. Nobody ever comes back to apologise when the first good run kicks in afterwards. Funny, that. Perhaps I’ll be proved wrong this time though; one never knows. I have no doubt whatsoever that the next good run is round the next corner – it always has been before, so why should this time be any different?

    During one particularly bad run, a year or two ago now, one person (I forget the name) complained loudly several times. I wasn’t the only one who suggested that if he genuinely felt the picks were so bad, he had surely found a great laying service. I wonder if he took us at our word and started laying the SotD beasts? If he did, I know what happened to him….

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.