Stat of the Day, 18th December 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2014

No fanfare or celebration from our 1,000th runner as Hazzaat could only manage a pretty well beaten (9L) 2nd at 7/2 (adv 4/1) in the last race of the day.

In fairness, he pretty much ran the race he was expected to, held up in rear ready for a late run and he stayed on well from a long way back. Could he have gone a little earlier? Probably/possibly. Would it have made much difference? No, I don't think so.

The favourite Haines proved to be better than I thought he'd be and actually proved good value for the overnight 5/2 price tag that I wasn't keen on. He dominated from start to finish and pretty much made all in a fairly facile win and sometimes that's how it is. You pick a horse, get a bit of value in the price, he runs his race, but finds one too good.

No complaints from here in East Lancashire, but I could do with a winner, so it's off to Devon I go for the...

1.20 Exeter:

And a Class 3 handicap hurdle over 2m 1f where Richard Johnson will attempt to complete back to back course and distance wins aboard the 3/1 BOG, Philip Hobbs-trained Pull The Chord, a lightly raced but interesting 4 yr old.

The Hobbs string is in fine order at the moment...

...clocking up 38 winners from 155 runs (24.5% SR) in the last two months and achieving levels takes profits of 62.1pts (40.1% ROI) with Richard Johnson the winning jockey on 27 occasions from the 92 rides he's taken. That 29.3% strike rate is not only impressive, but has generated 73.6pts (+80% ROI) level stakes profits.

But their combined success is nothing new...

In the last 5yrs their record as a partnership pans out ats 280 winners from 1386 runners, a 20.2% strike rate yielding 280.2pts profit at an ROI of 20.2%, with a 26% strike rate here at Exeter. and from the initial set of 1386 runners...

Handicaps: 106/717 (14.8% SR) for 142.7pts (+19.9% ROI) profit.
Hurdles: 132/704 (18.8% SR) for 74.9pts (+10.6% ROI)
Class 3: 54/342 (15.8% SR ) for 63.1pts (+18.5% ROI)

And in Class 3 handicap hurdles, they have 17 winners from 116 attempts, a 14.7% strike rate producing 53.2pts profits at an ROI of 45.9%.

Pull The Chord won over this course and distance last time out...

And since 2009, when Philip Hobbs has had a runner in a handicap hurdle priced below 9/1 who won last time out, they went on to win again on 30 of 114 attempts (26.3% SR) producing level stakes profits of 27.4pts (+24% ROI) in the process.

Whilst LTO winners go well here at Exeter...

...especially those with CD next to their name on the racecard. LTO winners running here at Exeter in a handicap with CD next to their name are 11/43 (25.6% SR) since 2008 with the 42.4pts level stakes profits equating to 98.5% of stakes invested. Those sent off in the 5/2 to 12/1 range are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+155.1% ROI) with no runners (and therefore winners) priced higher than 12/1.

Pull The Chord looks a promising type sent hurdling straightaway after 2 placed efforts in Point to Point races, where he wasn't beaten by far, but proved he'd the necessary stamina required. He was a good third on his Rules debut at Stratford at the end of October with subsequent winner, Kingfisher Creek, a further place and three lengths behind him.

He then ran here over today's distance 24 days later, when he strung the field right out on his way to a very comfortable 12 length victory, one that the handicapper will have found tough to assess and I have a feeling that he may have been underestimated with an opening mark of 124.

The team are in good nick and although this is only the horses fifth race of any description, he hasn't run a bad one yet. So, the call is quite simply, a 1pt win bet on Pull The Chord at 3/1 BOG. You can take your pick of either Coral or Skybet, when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 1.20 Exeter 

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 18th December 2014

  1. (John) Paul Ambrose

    Have you just been reading Matt’s “Handicap Plots…” blog, Chris (haha)? Think that form doesn’t quite put him in the “plot” category. On him. Cheers.

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