Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

Beatu was outstanding yesterday and defied a big drift in the market to surge home and win by a good six lengths easing down! He hit the front with a couple of furlongs to and within a furlong had pu the race pretty much to bet. AP drove him on and ran the chasing favourite into the ground before easing our mount down.

We'd advised a 7/2 bet and I thought that was good value. The market, however, disagreed and he drifted out to an SP of 6/1 (Betfair SP paid a massive 9.57!). Thank heavens for BOG!

Back to the All-Weather now for a Class 2 Handicap over 11 furlongs, postponed from last Wednesday, the...

6.20 Kempton:

It's the same race I put up last week and I'm sticking with the same selection! Some of the stats (if not all!) will have changed though.

Marco Botti's horses are in good form at present with 5 winners and 3 placers from 12 runners in the last fortnight, but followers of his methods will have come to expect this, as he generally does well in December.

He has a 11/35 record in handicap contests in the month of December with horses that we'd consider for SotD ie odds of a minimum 7/4 and above, but with a 12/1 cap. The 31.43% strike rate has produced 60.5pts profit to level stakes, a remarkable return of 173% above stakes invested, and he's already 2 from 5 this month, including today's selection Halfsin, who was a 10/1 winner over course and distance here a fortnight ago.

Halfsin was by no means Marco's first winner at Kempton this year, in fact he's had a great 2013 in handicap contests here, winning 13 of the 39 he's been represented in, a strike rate of 33.33% responsible for returning 32.7pts or 84% profit.

So, we know the yard's horses go well here and that they tend to fire in December and also that Halfsin was a course and distance winner last time out, but what else do we know about this horse?

He has taken quite well to the A/W surface here, having also finished third over C&D on his only other completed run at Kempton and he also has a decent record on the flat, with 4 wins and 2 places from 14. Today will be his twentieth trip to a track and he's still in that rare category of horses who have been profitable to back blindly over a reasonably large number of runs: 5.5pts at SP from 19 races = 28.95% ROI.

He's up 6lbs for that latest victory, but they way he was still pulling clear at the end of a race he'd dominated from start to finish suggests he'll be able to shoulder the extra burden, but the rise has been accounted for in his 9/1 price today. If he's allowed to dictate affairs again and get another easy lead, the rest of the pack could very well struggle to get past him.

He'll be aided and abetted by the in-form Martin Harley today and the jockey is absolutely flying at present. In the last fortnight alone, from the 46 horses he has ridden: 14 have been returned as winners (30.4% SR for 53pts profit at SP!) and a total of 21 have made the frame for a place strike rate of 45.7%. Martin has also won on four of his last eight rides here at Kempton, including a 2 from 3 return on his last visit six days ago.

I've a sneaking suspicion that Halfsin might be slightly overpriced here, but I'm going to play a cautious safety-first approach here with a 0.5pt E/W bet on Halfsin at 9/1 BOG with Hills. You should of course, do your own research and...

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5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 18th December 2013

  1. Jack Benton

    hi matt i would certainly always be careful to dare oppose your stat of the day i missed yesterdays what a brilliant profit but im going to put my neck on the line and suggest a maximum ew interest on im fraam govan best of luck for the future jack benton

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Feel free to oppose, Jack. That’s what racing’s all about.
      SotD is all about statistics, not gut feeling or anything else and the stats say we only win 1 in 4 or 5, so we might lose today. 😀

      Chris

  2. jethro

    Hi Chris, Along with everyone else’s comments, I am very sorry to see the website coming to an end and much applaud the good work you guys have done. Can you tell me however whether the Stat of the Day feature will continue? I have developed a nice little staking plan using just your one daily Stat of the day tip and it is showing a very reasonable profit. I for one would be prepared to pay you a small subscription if the website closes to continue receiving Stat of the Day on its own? Look forward to your response and Happy Christmas to you all…

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Jethro,
      Thank you for your kind words, but the best answer I can give you at present re: SotD is “I don’t honestly know!”
      Geegeez isn’t actually coming to an end, but Matt is currently seeking a buyer for the site.
      I am currently employed by Matt to work on the site and if the sale is completed, it would be down to the new owners to decide if I am to be kept on. They might not need/want me to continue, but that’s not something I’m concerning myself with at present.
      Either way, I’m not quite ready to call it a day and it’s highly likely you’ll continue to see me around the internet for some time to come and I’m sure the picture will become much clearer over the coming month or so.
      It has been an absolute honour and a privilege to have been offered the opportunity to contribute to the success of Geegeez and also to have worked with Matt for the last two and a half years.

      Chris

  3. jethro

    Hi again Chris,
    No need to publish this one – but up to you if you wish to do so…
    Thanks for your quick response and pleased to hear you won’t be disappearing in the immediate future anyway! Your SotD tips are ideal for me as the winners come regularly enough; and you seldom back low priced favourites; so the outlays don’t need to increase excessively on a losing streak. I’ve learnt the secret is not to be greedy – I make a tenner plus, each time you pick a winner. Days like yesterday were great as I outlayed enough to make my usual tenner on that particular run of bets at 7/2 BOG and ended up nearly doubling my profit. Happy days!
    Anyway, whatever happens with Geegeez, please don’t go disappearing without letting us know where we can track down your continued and very much valued advice!
    Cheers…

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