Stat of the Day, 18th August 2014
It all sort of fell apart late on for Los Nadis at Perth on Saturday, after having run and travelled well until making a mistake 3 from home which unsettled his rhythm. His jockey then lost the irons at the second from last and despite battling to stay in contention was eventually outpaced on the flat, finally coming home in 4th place at 4/1.
The overall margin of defeat was almost ten lengths in the end, but I was happy enough with the vast bulk of the run, but not the result, of course. I aim to put that right swiftly today and with one eye on the terrible weather around, I think it's best to head for the all-weather and more particularly, the...
Where talented rising star Oisin Murphy's only ride on the card is trainer Joseph Tuite's only runner anywhere today (Oisin is down for two rides at Windsor later!). The horse in question is the 3 yr old Cincuenta Pasos, who can currently be backed at 7/2 BOG.
Joseph Tuite's record at the sharper end of the market here at Kempton is pretty good with five winners from the nineteen runners priced between 2/1 and 5/1, with the 26.3% strike rate generating 11.1pts (+58.6% ROI) profits at level stakes.
That 5/19 (26.3% SR) record is also exactly the same record as Oisin Murphy has when riding any of Mr Tuite's horses in the past, but the subsequent profits from these runs is significantly higher at 20.7pts, or 108.8% of all stakes.
Incidentally Oisin has a decent enough record here at this track too with a 15.5% strike rate (via 9 winners from 58) generating 27.6pts (+47.5% ROI) profit.
Cincuenta Pasos was last seen just five days ago when landing an apprentice jockeys' handicap at Salisbury last Wednesday. Other than the change of surface, the race conditions will be similar here with both races being over 7f at Class 5 level. The switch to the A/W track shouldn't be too much of an inconvenience, though as the horse has already run well here on a couple of occasions.
Further weight is added to the selection when one of my micro-systems shows decent results for horses under the following conditions: previous winner at today's trip / winner LTO within last five days (any trip) / same class as LTO / same trip as LTO / OR no more than 7lbs higher than LTO.
Horses fitting those criteria have won 91 of 250 races in the last four years with the 36.4% strike rate producing profits of 70.5pts at a yield of 28.2%. If we then just considered those within the evens to 11/2 price range, we have 67 winners from just 180 runners for a 37.2% strike rate and 79.8pts (+44.3% ROI)
I allow a rise in official ratings of up to 7lbs to account for a penalty imposed for that win last time out, but Cincuenta Pasos' win came in an apprentices' race, so no penalty is incurred and he turns out again off the same winning mark of 68. From the 250 horses above, the record when running at the same mark as last time out is 17/37 (4539% SR) for 19.2pts (+51.9% ROI) profit with the Evens to 11/2 odds restriction improving the figures once again, this time to 14/32 (43.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+61.7% ROI).
That win last time out came after four uninspiring finishes of 5064, but now dropped to a workable mark, he is quickly turned out to take advantage of a return to form. This is something we see a lot of in A/W handicaps, where horses who recently (last 30 days) won after a series (3 or more) of consecutive unplaced runs went on to win again.
Of all those runners attempting back to back wins after a run of poor results, those sent off below 8/1 have a good record in the last couple of years, winning 102 of 334 races (30.5% SR) for 96.1pts profit (+28.8% ROI).
From the 334 runners, the record here at Kempton is also very encouraging with 33 winners from 94 (35.1% SR) generating 49.2pts profit at an ROI of 52.3%.
Cincuenta Pasos stayed on well to win by a length and a half at Salisbury last week, and if he runs as well on this surface as he has in the past, then he has a great chance of another victory. Jennifer Powell rode him well last time, but I think Oisin Murphy is capable of squeezing a little bit more out of the horse if required and I'm happy to stake a 1pt win bet on them at 7/2 BOG.
This price is readily available and I've gone with SkyBet to put it towards my wagering requirements for the weekly free bet. Feel free, of course, to use another firm and you can check their prices, when you...
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