Stat of the Day, 18th April 2017

Monday's Result :

2.20 Huntingdon : Hint of Grey @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 Keen tracked leader, led soon after 3rd, clear 4th, reduced lead 3 out, ridden next, headed flat and beaten by 2 lengths.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Custard The Dragon2/1 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old gelding who has been in great form over the last 5 months, finishing 21131421 and his win over this course and distance last time out a fortnight ago took his career record to 5 from 15 on the all-weather (more on that shortly) and although he's up 3lbs for that win, he actually drops in class here today and should have too much for his rivals.

April has tended to be a good month for his trainer John Mackie in recent years with 11 winners from 70 in the last five (including this one) Aprils. That 15.7% strike rate has been good enough to generate level stakes profits of 47.6pts at an ROI of 68%, including...

  • handicaps : 10/63 (15.9%) for 36.2pts (+57.4%)
  • males : 9/50 (18%) for 48.9pts (+97.8%)
  • those who ran in the past 30 days : 9/37 (24.3%) for 69.1pts (+186.8%)
  • on the A/W  : 7/26 (26.9%) for 34pts (+130.9%)
  • and 4 yr olds are 3/18 (16.7%) for 5.7pts (+31.6%)

And before I leave you, let's just quickly have a closer look at Custard The Dragon's record on the A/W. I said he's won 5 of 15 and this is the case, but more interestingly/relevant here are the facts that of those 15 races, he is...

  • 5/12 over this 7f trip
  • 5/11 going left handed
  • 4/11 since going to be trained by John Mackie
  • 4/6 running 8 to 15 days since his last run
  • 4/5 here at Southwell
  • 4/5 over course and distance
  • 3/5 when sent off as favourite
  • 2/4 in cheekpieces
  • and a win and a runner-up finish from his two starts under today's jockey Ben Curtis

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Custard The Dragon2/1 BOG which was fairly widely available at 6.25pm on Monday, but please take the 9/4 BOG from Betfair if you can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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