Friday's Result :
3.40 Ayr : Clem Fandango @ 7/2 BOG WON at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, led over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, ran on well to win by almost 4 lengths)
Saturday's pick goes in the...
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Dubka at 9/4 BOG
This 3 yr old filly has won three of her first starts to date, with her only defeat coming on debut over a shorter trip. She's 3 from 3 over this 1m4f trip and 3 from 3 in fields of 10 or fewer runners.
The current unsettled weather shouldn't be an issue, as she has won on good to firm ground and also on soft! And she won at Class 2 last time out, but now drops down a grade, so I'd expect a good run today and in addition to those factors...
1. She's by Dubawi, whose offspring are 107/482 (22.2% SR) for 350.6pts (+72.8% ROI) on the Flat over trips of 10.5 to 14.5f, of which those running on Good/Good to Soft ground are 48/222 (21.6%) for 213.3pts (+96.1%), whilst Class 3 runners are 17/67 (25.4%) for 43.3pts (+64.6%).
2. She's trained by Sir Michael Stoute, whose handicap class droppers are 25/97 (25.8% SR) for 18.3pts (+18.9% ROI) profit since 2011, of which...
- on the Flat : 21/81 (25.9%) for 18.3pts (+22.6%)
- 3 yr olds : 20/66 (30.3%) for 29.6pts (+44.8%)
- 26-75 days since last run : 14/44 (31.8%) for 15.6pts (+35.5%)
- dropping from Class 2 : 11/38 (29%) for 14.2pts (+37.4%)
- now running at Class 3 : 9/35 (25.7%) for 8.82pts (+25.2%)
3. Over the last two seasons, Sir Michael's runners over this 1m4f trip are 26 from 105 (24.8% SR) for 71.4pts (+68% ROI) on the Flat, with...
- handicappers winning 16 of 56 (28.6%) for 50.6pts (+90.3%)
- those running on good/good to soft are 8/40 (20%) for 35.35pts (+88.4%)
- and class 3 runners are 3/12 (25%) for 14.76pts (+123%)
...which gives us...a 1pt win bet on Dubka at 9/4 BOG, which was available from Bet365 and Betfair Sports at 5.55pm on Friday, so to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...
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