Stat of the Day, 17th October 2017

Monday's Result :

3.30 Windsor : Killay @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/8 : Slowly into stride, pulled hard, held up towards rear, headway on outside chasing leaders over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, 3rd and one pace inside final furlong...

Tuesday's selection goes in the...

4.30 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dream of Delphi @ 5/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 6, 2yo handicap (nursery) over 1m on good to soft ground...

...where our 2 yr old filly is the one of the ten runners to have previously won a race (collectively the field is 1 from 46!), She's trained by William Haggas, whose horses have been in blistering form of late, winning 23 of 83 (27.7% SR) for 51pts (+61.5% ROI) over the last 30 days, improving to 12/43 (27.9%) for 35.9pts (+83.5%) over the past fortnight.

Mr Haggas is also good for one of my "set and forget" simple betting systems, whereby all you need to do is check if he has any Class 3 to 6 Flat handicappers and of he does, just back them! This blind backing policy is good for 160 winners from 583 bets (27.4% SR) for 141.1pts profit at an ROI of 24.2% over the last six seasons, but if you prefer a more selective approach or just want fewer than 100 bets a season from one angle, then...

  • females are 86/267 (32.2%) for 128.6pts (+48.2%)
  • those racing over 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 71/235 (30.2%) for 121.4pts (+51.7%)
  • females racing over 7 to 8.5 furlongs are 43/114 (37.7%) for 107.3pts (+94.1%)
  • those now rated (OR) 1 or 2 lbs lower than LTO are 22/97 (22.7%) for 38.9pts (+40.1%)
  • 2 yr olds are 11/59 (18.6%) for 27.1pts (+45.9%)
  • those ridden by the talented 3lb claimer Georgia Cox are 13/43 (30.2%) for 11.5pts (+26.7%)
  • and at Class 6 : 8/27 (29.6%) for 23pts (+85.2%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Dream of Delphi @ 5/1 BOG, which was widely available at 10.15pm on Monday and still there with Bet365 at 7.50am. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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