Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012
Well, Barista certainly gave it his all yesterday, but didn't quite have enough in his locker to see off the imperious Richard Hughes on board a well-fancied odds-on jolly. We expected that to be the main danger, but we had taken 8/1 E/W on an eventual 9/2 shot, so the value was certainly there and we picked up another 0.3pts for our troubles. It was, of course, an easy forecast for many of you and the CSF paid £4.87 and the Exacta paid £6.80, so fair play / well done to those of you on that.
Just a short trip for SotD today, a mere 30 miles up the A46 from yesterday's race at Leicester, we pitch ourselves at Colwick Park for a 16-runner, 10-furlong, Class 3 Handicap on Soft (Good to Soft in places) ground, better known to you as the...
As you've probably all gathered by now, I'm a bit of a numbers geek and today post will further reinforce that theory!
Firstly when it comes top analysing recent trainer form in Nottingham handicaps, Michael Appleby has been represented in more races than any of the other top 15 trainers in action today, so we're getting a decent sample size to work from. In the last two years, Michael has sent twenty runners to compete in these type of events and his record stands up to the best of them. A win strike rate of 30% via 6 winners producing level stakes profits of 54pts (270% profit) makes him the most successful in terms of profits and the 3rd highest strike rate. His place strike is also excellent with 10 of the 20 making the frame and backing all twenty as E/W bets would have netted a cool 71pts profit.
So, we've got a trainer, we now need a horse! Well, quite a chunk of any profit made by Mr Appleby here at Nottingham has come from today's selection Art Scholar.
Art Scholar is 2 from 2 at Nottingham over course & distance, including a comfortable-enough win on his last outing a week ago, where he came in at 25/1 beating the runner-up by the best part of 2 lengths and staying on/pulling away at the end. Incidentally, we'd backed the 3rd place horse at 12/1 E/W for SotD that day, so Art Scholar caught my eye then.
The horse himself is in cracking form aside from last week's win: 8 wins from his last 25 races over the last 16 months or so, including two at 25/1, two at 9/1 and two at 6/1, helping him to a level stakes profit of some 67pts from 25 races. A further four place-finishes and four fourth-places have meant he has only been out of the top four on nine of those 25 outings: a very good level of consistency. (That's a lot of fours, sorry!)
Art Scholar is also 4 from 8 at today's trip and last week's win was on similar Good to Soft ground that he'll encounter today. All in all, I think he has an excellent chance of putting in another good show for us.
He does carry a 6lb penalty for last week's victory and this is reflected in his price today, but the 10/1 BOG currently available at Stan James looks generous (he's as low as 13/2 in places and 8/1 generally) and as a 16-runner race, we're aiming for another top four finish (1/4 odds paid for the place). So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W on Art Scholar at 10/1 BOG with Stan James, but you really should take time to...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.15 Nottingham.
P.S. Michael Appleby has another handicapper on the card today: as Demora runs in the 4.20 race. She was a 14/1 winner last time out at Bath (5 weeks ago), but she runs from 1lb out of the handicap today and whilst having a chance of a place, she'll find it tougher today. She is however, available at 14/1 BOG with Paddy Power, if you were so inclined.