Monday's Result :
3.45 Brighton: Brave Archibald @ 10/ E/W BOG 2nd at 8/1 (Short of room start, in touch towards rear, pushed along 3f out, ridden and headway inside final furlong, driven and stayed on to go 2nd final strides). On a tough day stats-wise, I was very pleased to emerge with a small profit of half a point to keep the ball rolling.
Tuesday's pick goes in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG.
Over the last two years, this 9 yr old gelding has proved to be remarkably consistent, with 11 top 3 finishes from 13 efforts and was a winner by a length and a quarter in a 3m contest last time out at Perth almost four weeks ago.
He's trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, whose handicap hurdlers are 21/112 (18.75% SR) for 39pts (+34.8% ROI) profit when turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out. And of more pertinence today, we can filter those 112 runners down as follows...
- males are 19/94 (20.2% SR) for 43.2pts (+46% ROI)
- on ground deemed good, good to soft or soft : 18/85 (21.2% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
- at odds of 9/4 to 8/1 : 16/76 (21.1% SR) for 21.9pts (+28.9% ROI)
- those raised 2 to 7lbs for that LTO win are 14/65 (21.5% SR) for 37.3pts (+57.5% ROI)
- at trips of 2m5f and beyond : 12/57 (21.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+90.8% ROI)
- racing 26 to 30 days after that LTO win : 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 38.6pts (+275.9% ROI)
I should also touch on the fact that Nigel's son Sam will be in the saddle and Sam's record on his dad's Class 4 male hurdlers currently stands at 63 winners from 350 (18% SR) for decent level stakes profits of some 124.8pts (+35.7% ROI), with those horses running beyond 3m winning 10 of 43 (23.3% SR) for 20.5pts (+47.6% ROI).
And the call is...a 1pt win bet on Frontier Vic at 7/2 BOG with either Bet365 or BetVictor, who were the standout BOG bookies at 6.30pm, whilst Betfred, Ladbrokes and Totesport were all quoting the same odds, but don't/won't offer BOG until the day of the race. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...
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