Stat of the Day, 17th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th May 2014

Some of you got 13/2 about Hab Reeh yesterday, just minutes after I'd gone "live" at 6/1 and his SP was 5/1, all of which meant he was a borderline case for an E/W bet and although the profit from him coming second was just 0.1pts, it is still a 10% increase on stakes, it prevented another hard luck story and kept the scoreboard ticking after a difficult week or so for SotD.

As it was, he gave his best shot, no complaints there, I thought the jockey rode a really good race, but we just found one better on the day, a fast finishing 28/1 outsider. The E/W option meant a second successive profitable day and I'm aiming for the hat-trick in today's...

4.35 Thirsk:

Where talented jockey Jason Hart will be expected to make good use of his 3lb claim aboard Eric Alston's 6 yr old gelding Barkston Ash, who drops back to Class 3 level today.

You're forgiven for getting bit of a deja vue feeling with this selection, as I did indeed select the very same horse exactly a month ago at Ripon, when he was a 9/2 winner for us and much of what I wrote about him that day still rings true, but with updated figures!

1. Eric Alston's record when dropping horses in class over the last 4 seasons in flat handicaps is 27/136 (19.85% SR) for 98.2pts (+72.2% ROI)

2. In the last two seasons when employing a jockey claiming 3lbs, his horses have won 12 of 41 races at 16/1 or under. That's a 29.3% strike rate generating a 50.93pts (+124.2% ROI) profit. From that 412 runner subset, Jason Hart's record is 5/20 (25% SR) for 29.23pts (+146.15% ROI).

3. When Jason rides for Eric, he has a 1-in-6 strike rate (27 runners from 162 runners) for 59.9pts (+37% ROI).

4. Barkston Ash is Eric Alston' s only runner out today and on the occasions when he's only had one runner, he has a 17% strike rate via 18 winners from 106 runners. These sole runners have produced 65.02pts (+61.34% ROI) profits, showing that Eric doesn't like going home empty-handed.

5. When those sole runners had won or finished within 2 lengths of the winner last time out and within 30 days of that run, they then went on to win 10 of 28 races (35.7% SR) for 37.2pts (+132.9% ROI) profit.

Barkston Ash is in good nick, winning at Class 4 level when we backed him a month ago, before being narrowly defeated in a Class 2 handicap last time out. He was only headed in the closing strides and went down by a neck. Thanks to Jason's claim, he runs off effectively the same 86 mark and conditions are set to suit him here.

He's 5/15 on good ground, including his last two efforts and all nine career wins have come from his 35 runs at this trip. When I starting compiling today's report, he was an 11/2 shot, he's now down to 5/1 BOG at best and money seems to be coming for him. To get 5/1, you might need to act quickly and I have just done so, placing a 1pt win bet on Barkston Ash at 5/1 BOG with SkyBet.

To see who's offering what price...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.35 Thirsk

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 17th May 2014

  1. Blokeshead

    Well done, Mr Worrall, Sir!

    Nice little drift too all the way out to 7/1 – hurrah!

    I also put it in with the DD in doubles and trebles, which is gonna make the 6.10 squeaky bum time! 🙂

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      You and me both, Stuart.
      The way DD has gone of late, with a single winner virtually every day for the last fortnight, the SotD/DD doubles have been a good saver.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Thank you.
      I’m just happy to have been able to return the SotD ship to an even keel over the last three days.
      I firmly believe that SotD is worth the Gold membership fee on its own, but if I can generate enough profits each month to cover the fee, then all the other excellent features are for free! 😀

  2. bigvern63

    Excellent selection Chris, have to agree with you that SOTD is worth the membership fee alone, add to that all the other fantastic content on the site and geegeez is an absolute bargain.

    Keep up the good work.

    Many thanks, Chris

  3. sondrio2

    hi chris,can you tell me if you use any staking plan with stat of the day, and what point do you switch to each way if the odds drift from those stated, thanks george

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi George,

      There is no staking plan at all. It’s 1pt per selection and I’ll advise win or E/W, depending on the circumstances of each race: there is no hard and fast rule.
      If a horse drifts and I’ve advised it as a win only bet, then it stays that way. I back these with real money at the odds I quote, so I couldn’t change my bet, if I wanted to.

      As for the staking, I don’t like staking plans really. I prefer level stakes or a set percentage of the bank, but any system/service that relies on a staking plan to make profit doesn’t really interest me.

      Chris

      1. sondrio2

        thanks chris, i totally agree about staking plans, not for me either, im really impressed with the stat of the day, thanks for the reply, cheers george

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