Stat of the Day, 17th May 2013
A hit and miss performance yesterday, as Al Qeddaaf ran well enough until he was headed 3 fences from home. Once headed, he seemed to have little fight in him and he fairly quickly regressed. He did jump a little awkwardly at the last, but that wasn't the reason for a near 13 length defeat, as he eventually came home third of six.
We're going back to the flat today for a combined effort of sorts from Matt and myself, as we've found a likely contender in a 14-runner, 10-furlong, Class 5 handicap. The ground is set to be good (firmer in parts) today for the....
At the risk of both repeating myself and boring you into submission, could I just remind you of Matt's recent free report containing ten trainer-based niches that have proven themselves to be very profitable. It is only going to be available for a short while right here and it's totally free! The reason I tell you this is that one of the angles in there throws up an interesting proposition for today.
Between 2010 and 2013, when Luca Cumani books either of Kieran Fallon, Ryan Moore or Richard Hughes to ride a horse priced below 12/1 that none of the trio rode last time out, the results are brilliant: 47 wins from 156 (30.13%) for level stakes profits of 44.46pts (28.50% ROI) at Industry SP and 66.45pts (42.60% ROI) at Betfair SP.
There is one such horse today, which by default is our selection : Semeen.
Semeen won a similarly big field handicap (under Kieran Fallon) at Newmarket back in August over today's trip and whilst he couldn't repeat the trick in two subsequent races for two other jockeys, he still looks the one to beat today. He's unexposed and is expected to have more of a chance as a 4 yr old and the booking of Richard Hughes is seen as a big positive, especially if kept fairly close to the pace. He should come here suitably refreshed after a break of 197 days.
I'm not over concerned about his lay off, because Luca Cumani has an excellent record with horses coming back from a break of over 6 months. I did some digging and I found that when he brings horses back from a break of 6 to 8 months, they won 19 from 69 races: a strike rate of 27.54% giving profits of 27.17pts at SP (+39.4% ROI) and 39.60pts (+57.4% ROI) at betfair SP.
Although more telling and interesting was that 18 of those 19 winners above were priced at 11/2 or under from just 35 runners. This 51.43% strike rate has generated profits of 35.17pts at SP and 42.68pts at betfair SP. These represent excellent returns of 100.5% ROI and 121.9% ROI respectively.
So, the booking of the jockey is significant, the yard's in good form at present and do well with horses coming back from a break. The horse itself is no mug and runs at just 3lbs higher than its win over this trip last year and all things considered, I expect to be collecting from my 1pt win bet on Semeen at 3/1 BOG with Betfred, but for your preferred bookie...
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