Stat of the Day, 17th December 2015
Wednesday's Result :
1.05 Lingfield : New Rich @ 11/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (Towards rear, ridden halfway, stayed on final furlong, nearest at finish, beaten by 4 lengths)
Thursday's selection runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG
Tolkeins Tango is 3 from 11 over fences to date and was a decent if tired 3rd at Chepstow last time out. He was beaten by less than three lengths that day and actually finished second before a stewards' room demotion bumped him down a place and halved his prize money! All things considered, it was a decent effort over 2m 3.5f on heavy ground after no run in 271 days and she should strip fitter for the outing 289 days ago off the same 118 mark as today.
He's 2 from 6 here at Exeter and has finished 1st & 3rd in two chase outings here, including a win over 2m 3.5f, a trip where he is 2 from 4 with finishes of 3113. He's trained by Vic Dartnall, who was back amongst the winners on Wednesday and has a good recent record here at Exeter, with 25 winners from 147 (17% SR) runners here saince the start of 2009 that have produced level stakes profits of 31.2pts at an ROI of 21.2%.
With today's race firmly in mind, my top 10 stats about those 147 runners are as follows...
- Males are 22/125 (17.6% SR) for 35.5pts (+28.4% ROI)
- 6/7 yr olds are 18/81 (22.2% SR) for 57.1pts (+70.5% ROI)
- Class 4 runners are 15/79 (19% SR) for 11pts (+14% ROI)
- Handicappers are 17/75 (22.7% SR) for 29.4pts (+39.3% ROI)
- Those priced 7/4 to 7/1 are 19/60 (31.7% SR) for 46.4pts (+77.3% ROI)
- Those running at the same trip as LTO or dropping by up to 3f are 16/57 (28.1% SR) for 41.9pts (+73.4% ROI)
- Chasers are 9.46 (19.6% SR) for 12.1pts (+26.3% ROI)
- In fields of 8 runners or less : 13/45 (28.9% SR) for 41.6pts (+92.5% ROI)
- Ridden by Denis O'Regan : 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 17.6pts (+79.8% ROI)
- Racing 21 to 30 after their last run : 5/19 (26.3% SR) for 9.38pts (+49.4% ROI)
And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 7.45pm?
A 1pt win bet on Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG with any one of four firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...
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