Stat of the Day, 17th December 2014
I don't think Thorpe Bay ran too badly at Southwell on Tuesday afternoon and had he been kept a little closer to the action off the final bend, he might well have defied a market drift out from 5/2 to an SP of 9/2.
He had too many horses in front of him and was too far off the pace for my liking around the bend and as a result had to go wide to get around the traffic ahead. Once on the straight he powered towards the leaders and was staying on well, but a third placed finish and beaten by a length and three quarters was the best he/we could manage on the day.
And so on to Wednesday and the 1,000th runner for SotD, running in the...
Yes, it's quite unbelievable that an idea Matt came up with to provide an alternative angle to form tipping should have blossomed in to a daily feature now celebrating its 1000th single runner in a little over three years.
A cold, damp Wednesday in December hardly seems right for such a momentous occasion, but let's see if we can mark the day with a winner in the shape of the 4 yr old gelding Hazzaat in this two-mile, Class 6 handicap on the All-Weather.
Our trainer today is Neil King...
...who appears to have his string in fine order at present with 9 winners and 6 more being placed from his 31 runners in the last month. And not only has he been profitable to back recently, you could have a made a decent pot of money from backing him blindly, as his record over the six years from all runners reads 150 winners from 1278 runners with an 11.7% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 242.1pts at an ROI a shade under 19%, which is good going off so many bets.
Yet, from all those runners, only 59 of them have competed in A/W handicap contests, but his 18.6% strike rate achieved via 11 winners is decent and these winners have accumulated level stakes profits of some 98.5pts (+166.9% ROI). Those running at odds of 2/1 to 12/1 are 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 62.5pts (+215.5%ROI).
Hazzaat carries top weight at 10-4 here after winning over course and distance last week....
But I wouldn't let that worry you too much, as male top weighted runners in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond have won 62 of 325 (19.1% SR) races since 2009. And with Hazzaat in mind, we can be more specific with our filtering down of that stat...
Those priced at odds against but below 5/1 have a 40/117 (34.2% SR) record for 19.5pts (+16.7% ROI) profit.
4 yr olds are 14/48 (29.2% SR) for 12.2pts (+25.4% ROI)
Those carrying between 9-13 and 10-9 have won 23 of 112 (20.5% SR) for 53.9pts profit (+48.1% ROI), of which those priced in the 15/8 to 5/1 banding have won 13 of 35 (37.1% SR) races producing 25.3pts profit at an ROI of 72.2% to date.
Previous course and distance winners have gone on to win 21 times from 66 attempts (31.8% SR) with excellent 60.4pts profit representing almost 92p in the pound on all bets.
Tom Queally is back in the saddle again...
...having ridden Hazzaat to victory over C&D nine days in what, somewhat surprisingly, was only his third ever ride for Neil King, but he now has a 2/3 record for the trainer! These longer distance races can really take it out of the lightweight flat jockeys, but there are a small group that excel over the longer trip and Tom is one of them.
In the last five years, Tom has ridden 15 winners from 84 handicap contests over 2m to 2m2f with that 17.9% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 35.7pts (+42.5% ROI), whilst his record in those events here at Kempton is 8 wins from 23 (34.8% SR) for 22.4pts (+97.4% ROI) profit.
So, having found some relevant stats for jockey, trainer and horse, it's pleasing to see we're being offered a reasonable price about our selection and that's due to the presence of 5/2 favourite Haines, who is unproven at the trip, hasn't run here before and is creeping up the weights without winning. I'm not dismissing his chances, but I wouldn't want to be on him at 5/2 or even shorter, so the call for Wednesday and our 1000th selection is a 1pt win bet on Hazzaat at 4/1 BOG with either Bet365, Paddy Power or the Betfair Sportsbook and you can, of course, always...
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