Stat of the Day, 17th April 2015
Paddy Brennan gave A Good Skin a perfectly timed, patient ride at Cheltenham on Thursday to maintain our recent excellent run of results. He refused to follow Trickaway who sett of like a house on fire opening up a 125 length lead and preferred to spend the first mile of the race in the last trio.
He slowly moved to mid division and started to pass horses in the second half of the race and when he got alongside the leader late on, he looked to have plenty in hand and surged on to win by almost three lengths at 7/2.
Early BOG backers made an extra half point, whilst those who agreed with my assumption that the price would contract benefited from Stan James' non-BOG 9/2. Friday looks tricky/competitive and whilst my pick isn't massively long in the market, I think I've got the winner of the...
In the shape of Harry Fry's 9yr old chaser Opening Batsman (if he's any good, England could do with him in the Windies!) who is priced at 5/2 BOG in most places.
Most people know that Harry Fry has an excellent record with his jumpers, but aren't aware of the numbers, so here goes. 😀
His chasers are 26/78 (33.33% SR) for level stakes profits of 43.6pts (+55.9% ROI), which is an excellent start to life as a trainer by anybody's standards. In handicap chases, he's 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 26.4pts (+61.3% ROI).
His chasers priced 9/4 to 9/2 have won 13 of 24 (54.2% SR) races for 25.5pts (+106.3% ROI), whilst in handicap company that becomes 8/16 (50% SR) for 17.9pts (+111.9% ROI).
Opening Batsman was last seen at Wincanton winning by nine lengths almost nine weeks ago, when he beat Harry's Farewell, who has since gone on to win by 18 lengths at Wincanton 25 days ago. That last win for Opening Batsman has statistical significance when placed in the context of today's race, because...
...Since the start of 2010, male horses aged 6 to 9 running in handicap chases at Class 3/4 level, whose last outing was a 2 to 10 length victory in a handicap chase in the previous 5 months is 187 winners from 801 runners, a 23.4% strike rate producing 182.1pts profit at an ROI of 22.7%.
You can break that set of 801 runners in a host of ways, but I'll just do 3 that are particularly relevant here, in order of sample size!
1) Those priced 13/8 to 11/2 : 123/484 (25.4% SR) for 72.4pts (+15% ROI)
2) Class 3 runners : 87/411 (21.2% SR) for 106.2pts (+25.9% ROI)
3) 9 yr old runners : 39/166 (23.5% SR) for 84.7pts (+51% ROI)
As you can see, there are lots of profitable angles to this one and 9 yr olds in Class 3 company at odds of 6/4 to 6/1 are 11/41 (26.8% SR) for 17.7pts (+43.1% ROI), but it's a fairly small sample size.
As for Opening Batsman, well he's 5 from 11 at Class 3/4 and 4 from 5 in races of 6 or fewer runners and when ridden by today's jockey Ryan Mahon, his results read 211. Ryan, incidentally has a decent record on the Fry string, having ridden 15 winners from the 66 rides allotted to him, a 22.7% strike rate for 21.2pts (+32.1% ROI) profit, including 7 wins from 12 rides over fences and he's 5 from 7 in handicap chases.
Plenty to go at there and although 5/2 BOG isn't the longest bet I've advised of late, I think it's a winning one. I've taken my 5/2 BOG on Opening Batsman with Bet365, but at least six other firms are currently displaying the same price.
But please make sure that's still the case by...
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