Stat of the Day, 16th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2013

No joy for us in Ireland yesterday, as Royal Diamond failed in his attempt to retain the Irish St Leger, only managing to finish fifth after being headed three furlongs from home.

So, SotD goes from Ireland to Scotland today for the...

3.10 Musselburgh

This is a competitive-looking, Class 4, two-mile handicap on ground officially declared as good, but there is the threat of a shower or two in the air, which may well soften things up a little.

Musselburgh is another of those courses that suits horses with previous experience of the track, particularly those who have won over course and distance in the past. In the last three years, over 20% of previous course and distance winners coming here on the back on a win last time out have followed up with another victory.

That 20% figure is derived from 18 winners from 89 attempts, which you could have backed blindly for a modest 4.93pts profit. Whilst an ROI of 5.54% isn't all that exciting, any profit from blind backing has to be respected and also provides a starting point for a micro system, once a filter or two is applied. One should, of course, be careful not to filter down too much as this tends to create unsuccessful backfitted methods!

All of those 18 winners above came from the 65 runners priced at 7/1 or below ie those attracting a modicum of support in the market and that 27.7% strike rate is moe like the area we want to be in, as is the ROI of 44.5% coming from the 28.93pts profit.

This micro system has held its head up this year too, with 6 winners from 28 (21.43%) for 2.95 pts (+10.54% ROI) profit, but all six winners have been priced at 5/1 or under from a record of 6/15 (40% SR) and 15.95 pts (+106.33% ROI) profit. More of the same will do us nicely.

Just one horse fits that criteria today: Dr Irv, who comes here on the back of a win over this trip at Thirsk sixteen days ago in a similar Class 4 event. His only previous visit to Musselburgh resulted in a course and distance win on good to soft ground back in June, so if the showers do come, it shouldn't inconvenience him too much.

When I looked at the race analysis tool on our interactive racecard, I saw that he had a 50% strike rate at this trip and also in this class of race. In fact, his record over two miles reads 331151, with the 5th place coming at York in a higher grade on good to firm ground, so I'm relatively happy to disregard that run. He's also got a 50% strike rate in fields of 8 runners or less (4 wins from 8)

It's likely to be on the softer side of good today, even if it doesn't get officially declared as Good to Soft and Dr Irv is more than capable in those conditions, having won over Course and Distance here on such ground.

He won't get it all his own way today, but I have varying degrees of doubts about his challengers. The competitive nature of today's race allied to a 6lb rise in weight (although Declan Cannon takes three off here) means we can get a decent price for this contest, where the play is a 1pt win bet on Dr Irv at 9/2 BOG with Stan James. At present they stand alone with that price, but as always I recommend that you...

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The card for today's race is right here.

 

1 thought on “Stat of the Day, 16th September 2013

  1. heavypaul

    Chris,
    You need to spit the jumps results from the flat, if you do that you will notice the jumps percentage is significantly higher than the flat, the highest priced winner on the flat is 9/2 so you can lower the odds slightly and it still shows as a profit over the period you tested. best of luck with the selection.

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