Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012
Stock Hill Fair finished 2nd yesterday and despite finishing some 8 lengths behind a rejuvenated Betchworth Kid, ran a very good race and led for the majority of the contest. Matt had advised us to take the 14/1 E/W on offer from bet365, which proved to be a smart move, as our selection was sent off at 15/2. However, the 2nd place finish meant a profit of 1.25pts for the bank and also (somewhat self-congratulatory) we're pleased to announce that this was the 100th winning SotD bet from Matt and myself in the last 11 months.
Anyway, enough of yesterday, I'm back in the SotD chair for the next 10 days or so and it's now my task to kickstart the next century of winners! So, we're going to the North East and provided the 8am inspection goes well, we're tackling the small matter of a 16-runner Class 6 Handicap over 7 furlongs on heavy ground in the...
The meeting is in some danger of abandonment, so we already know how heavy the going is going to be and today's selection is proven in both testing conditions and today's trip.
Clumber Place has an excellent record over 7 furlongs, having won six times from 24 attempts, harvesting a huge 63.25pts profit from those races (263.5% of stakes). She has also performed well here at Newcastle. All five of her previous outings here have been over today's trip and her form line from those 5 races reads 11521 for a profit of 15.5pts at SP. Her record on heavy ground is 2 wins from 3 and her record at Newcastle over course, distance and heavy ground is quite simply two from two.
Those two C&D wins on heavy ground include her last run some 13 days ago and although she has been raised 4lbs for her efforts, she looks well set for another good run under her favoured conditions.
Clumber Place is trained by James Given and will be ridden by Frederik Tylicki today. Freddie's no stranger to Newcastle either with a decent enough record of his own, boasting a 20% win strike and a place strike rate of 47%.
Currently only Bet365 have a full market for this one and I can't help but think that 13/2 BOG looks generous. Not only is it generous, it's long enough to offer us the E/W safety net which I'll be making full use of, should the race actually take place. So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W at 13/2 BOG with Bet365, but you really should take time to...
Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.30 Newcastle.
***P.S. Current state of affairs is 4 places paid at 1/4 odds, but any non-runners will reduce the place payouts to the first three home***