Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

Stock Hill Fair finished 2nd yesterday and despite finishing some 8 lengths behind a rejuvenated Betchworth Kid, ran a very good race and led for the majority of the contest. Matt had advised us to take the 14/1 E/W on offer from bet365, which proved to be a smart move, as our selection was sent off at 15/2. However, the 2nd place finish meant a profit of 1.25pts for the bank and also (somewhat self-congratulatory) we're pleased to announce that this was the 100th winning SotD bet from Matt and myself in the last 11 months.

Anyway, enough of yesterday, I'm back in the SotD chair for the next 10 days or so and it's now my task to kickstart the next century of winners! So, we're going to the North East and provided the 8am inspection goes well, we're tackling the small matter of a 16-runner Class 6 Handicap over 7 furlongs on heavy ground in the...

3.30 Newcastle

The meeting is in some danger of abandonment, so we already know how heavy the going is going to be and today's selection is proven in both testing conditions and today's trip.

Clumber Place has an excellent record over 7 furlongs, having won six times from 24 attempts, harvesting a huge 63.25pts profit from those races (263.5% of stakes). She has also performed well here at Newcastle. All five of her previous outings here have been over today's trip and her form line from those 5 races reads 11521 for a profit of 15.5pts at SP. Her record on heavy ground is 2 wins from 3 and her record at Newcastle over course, distance and heavy ground is quite simply two from two.

Those two C&D wins on heavy ground include her last run some 13 days ago and although she has been raised 4lbs for her efforts, she looks well set for another good run under her favoured conditions.

Clumber Place is trained by James Given and will be ridden by Frederik Tylicki today. Freddie's no stranger to Newcastle either with a decent enough record of his own, boasting a 20% win strike and a place strike rate of 47%.

Currently only Bet365 have a full market for this one and I can't help but think that 13/2 BOG looks generous. Not only is it generous, it's long enough to offer us the E/W safety net which I'll be making full use of, should the race actually take place. So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W at 13/2 BOG with Bet365, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.30 Newcastle.

***P.S. Current state of affairs is 4 places paid at 1/4 odds, but any non-runners will reduce the place payouts to the first three home***

16 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

  1. Johnny5

    Thxs Chris – hope the meeting gets the go ahead
    as your one been tickled in the market to 6/1

    Other confirmed mudlark and backed horse is fav Desert Creek ….

    The Crfc w bet365 is 23/1 & 27.5/1 bog which is a decent price . Couple of days ago there was discussion about Crfc calculations . It’s a mathematical connundrum for sure … But my rule of thumb is if 365 crfc odds bog are bigger or around the same of the odds multiplied and then adding the lowest price of the two then it’s value and will usually beat the sp ( as long as no NR as reverts to SP )

    So just about worth a tickle today in addition to your win bet although sure to be NRs Unfort

    Good luck today

  2. Chris Worrall Post author

    Hi Everyone,

    There was always a very good chance of an abandonment and 10mm of rain overnight, couled with the forecast of more to come meant it was inevitable. I felt posting the selection early was worth a gamble and has freed up a window this morning to try to find us an alternative, so please check back later.

    Chris

  3. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Like the new photo Chris, looking very sauve (hope thats spelt right). Hope you can find another to back a little later – welcome back.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      On form and ability, Spensley must have a chance. However, that race looks highly competitive and Spensley hasn’t raced at Wolverhampton before to the best of my knowledge.

  4. Ed

    Hi Guys,

    My preference in the 2020 @ Wolves would be Dark Dune. In terms of stats, he ticks all the boxes for me. The class, the track, Tim Easterby shows a 16% SR at the track and a LSP of £28.08. Dark Dune came second in a class 3 at Catterick 3 weeks ago and I think today should be just about right for him.

    As Chris said it is a competitive affair, so the 8/1 with Ladbrokes is a standout price, with most of the industry going 6’s. If 8/1 or above I would have an e/w tickle. Typically I only managed 6’s and have gone win only but believe I’ll get a good run for my money!

    Regards,

    Ed

  5. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Chris – good call – any horse associated with J.F. is a smart betting opportunity. Was on before I read your rec. – will now go to my usual SotD stake. Here’s hoping !

  6. Bruce.

    Can anyone tell me what crfc w is, and how it works. I, at the moment use only Betfair. When I get from France I will be opening accounts with internet bookies.

    Bruce.

    1. oneman

      Hello Bruce

      Can give me a bit more information and tell me where you got this abbreviation from please e.g. off a race card / betting site and where about it was on the card / other??? I will try and help.

    2. Chris Worrall Post author

      Bruce,
      When Johnny wrote “The Crfc w bet365 is 23/1 & 27.5/1 bog which is a decent price”
      He was saying that the Current Reversed Forecast with Bet365 is 23/1 and 27.5/1 Best Odds Guaranteed.”

      Hope this helps

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