Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012 (Take Two!)

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day 16/10

Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012

Stock Hill Fair finished 2nd yesterday and despite finishing some 8 lengths behind a rejuvenated Betchworth Kid, ran a very good race and led for the majority of the contest. Matt had advised us to take the 14/1 E/W on offer from bet365, which proved to be a smart move, as our selection was sent off at 15/2. However, the 2nd place finish meant a profit of 1.25pts for the bank and also (somewhat self-congratulatory) we're pleased to announce that this was the 100th winning SotD bet from Matt and myself in the last 11 months.

Anyway, enough of yesterday, I'm back in the SotD chair for the next 10 days or so and it's now my task to kickstart the next century of winners! And as Newcastle was abandoned this morning, I've had to rethink plans on what looks a difficult day. So we're off to Oadby for a Class 6 Seller over 7 furlongs. The going is currently Soft with more rain forecast, which should prove quite testing for the 10 runners in today's...

2.40 Leicester

The old adage is "horses for courses" and today I've tried to concentrate on a horse suited to the conditions rather than a trainer stat.

I'm going with Barista today, who has performed very well on each on his previous five starts in selling company with a record of 31123, solid place form there and he's 312 in Leicester sellers, so we know he "gets" the track, where his overall record reads 3112532

We know it's going to be tough out there today and the official going is Soft, but as it's raining now and is due to rain for pretty much most of the day, I wouldn't be surprised in the ground doesn't deteriorate further in the next few hours. This, however, won't cause our selection much concern, as he has a very good record on heavy ground with two wins and two runner-up positions from just five races. He was actually fourth in his only unplaced run on heavy ground in better company than this today.

Due to the fact that the favourite Tunnager Grove is hovering around even money, there's some decent odds on offer from Stan James for this race and they're currently showing 8/1 BOG for our selection. So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W at 8/1 BOG with Stan James, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 2.40 Leicester.


7 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 16th October 2012 (Take Two!)

  1. Jim Hdez

    Congratulation On Stats 100th winner !!!. I’ve looked at many of the systems posted on the website, and believe there’s nothing better then Stats !!.
    I like the one horse a day bet. Great in depth knowledge of the race and horse selected .
    Chris, are you still looking into an angle where place betting each selection of Stats will be profitable. Since I’ve been following, I’ve been impressed at the high strike rate of placed selections. Recently Stats were a whisker from another big priced place bet at 16/1 into 9/2.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Jim,

      From the last 100 SotD runners, 46 of them were placed.
      Backing these at £10 per selection to be placed would have produced £142 profit at Betfair SP.
      This alone is a decent figure, but better prices are more likely to be available pre-race.

      Chris

  2. Matt Bisogno Post author

    Nasty bout of seconditis just now. At least they’re all good priced each way plays. It’s the horse racing equivalent of the football adage about grinding out wins when not playing your best…

    Nice pick, Chris. 🙂

    Matt

  3. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Chris – must learn to read more carefully, thought you had tipped Spensley – so missed Barista. My own fault – more care & attention !!!

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