Stat of the Day, 16th May 2017

Monday's Result :

5.30 Towcester : Honey Pound @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 In rear, headway before 2 out, soon pushed along, one pace.

Monday's pick goes in the...

4.30 Beverley...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ronnie The Rooster3/1 BOG

Why?

A consistent type with finishes of 114322 in his last six outings and only narrowly outpaced and beaten in the last two, looking like he needed further. He gets an extra furlong today and that could be all it takes to get him back to wining ways, especially as...

...since 2012 in UK flat races over 7f to 1m4f, 3 to 5 yr olds who finished 2nd or 3rd last time out 6 to 30 days ago and had also finished in the top three two starts and three starts ago are 374/1772 (21.1% SR) for 391.1pts (+22.1% ROI) profit, including of relevance today...

  • 3 yr olds are 277/1278 (21.7%) for 316.4pts (+24.8%)
  • Class 5 runners are 141/509 (27.7%) for 126.1pts (+24.8%)
  • those running in May are 56/259 (21.6%) for 276.3pts (+106.7%)
  • and those beaten by a head or shorter LTO are 29/103 (28.2%) for 61.8pts (+60%)

Ronnie The Rooster is also David Barron's only runner of the day, but since 2010, the yard's solo entrants have won 93 of 506 (18.4% SR) for 160.2pts (+31.7% ROI), and today's race conditions tell us that these 506 "lonely souls" are...

  • 75/400 (18.75%) for 164.7pts (+41.2%) as males
  • 52/314 (16.6%) for 128.2pts (+40.8%) on the Flat
  • 42/180 (23.3%) for 62.7pts (+34.8%) after a break of just 6 to 20 days
  • 32/131 (24.4%) for 154.5pts (+117.9%) at Class 5
  • 12/48 (25%) for 39.55pts (+82.4%)
  • and 4/31 (12.9%) for 37.7pts (+121.6%) here at Beverley

...and if all of the above hasn't quite convinced you, let me show you something else that should just tip the balance. A quick at today's racecard provides further clues for us, as clicking the pace tab tells us that this race suits horses who are very much up with the pace and then the draw tab tells us that horses drawn low should fare best.

It is, therefore, unsurprising that further down the page on the draw tab, the heat map shows a definite bias towards horses that like to be up with the pace and are drawn low. Our boy Ronnie The Rooster is drawn in stall 2 and is joint top of the average pace ratings based on his last four runs.

...which backs up...a 1pt win bet on Ronnie The Rooster3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.10pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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