Stat of the Day, 16th January 2016

Friday's Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bayan Kasirga @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Keen in rear, ridden 2f out, never near leaders)

Saturday's runner goes in the...

2.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Vendor @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

Firstly, trainer Sue Smith's record here in Wetherby handicap hurdles since 2008 stands at 1 wiiners from 79 (13.9% SR) for 22.8pts (+28.8% ROI) profit with her Class 3 runners winning 8 of 32 (25% SR) for 45.6pts (+142.6% ROI) and her LTO winners are 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 12.2pts (+101.8% ROI)

And her Class 3 runners who won last time out are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 14.06pts at an ROI of 175.4%.

Next, we should look at how Sue's horses fare in the mud. Since 2008, her horses are 59/325 (18.2% SR) for 95.2pts (+29.3% ROI) profit, of which handicappers are 45 from 229 (19.7% SR) for 87.9pts (+38.4% ROI).

Of those 229 handicappers, hurdlers are 15/76 (19.7% SR) for 17.1pts (+22.5% ROI) with those priced at 6/4 to 8/1 winning 10 of 42 (23.8% SR) for 12.5pts (+29.7% ROI) with a record ovver the last two years of 7 winners from 23 (30.4% SR) for 14.4pts (+62.4% ROI)

And finally, Vendor himself. This 8 yr old was a course winner here at Wetherby last time out, when landing a 2m handicap hurdle by nine lengths six weeks ago on soft ground, so conditions shouldn't be an issue and confidence in his ability to follow up is boosted by the fact that...

...Over the last 4 years, male handicap hurdlers who won a handicap hurdle by four lengths or more last time out, three to sixty days ago are 271/1045 (25.9% SR) for 232pts (+22.2% ROI) profit, with the following of particular interest today...

  • those last seen 16 to 45 days ago are 106/520 (20.4% SR) for 153.7pts (+29.6% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO are 130/491 (26.5% SR) for 149.7pts (+30.5% ROI)
  • those now running at 2m 1f to 2m 4.5f are 111/372 (29.8% SR) for 195.5pts (+52.6% ROI)
  • and those running on soft/heavy ground are 110/372 (29.6% SR) for 118.6pts (+31.9% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on my data and prices available at 6.00pm is...

A 1pt win bet onĀ Vendor and that's at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 who are currently the standout price. To see if that's still the case, you can always...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Wetherby!

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 16th January 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. Have seen Sue Smith’s “heavy” record elsewhere, although the micro I had was h/c chasers at a few other courses. Let’s hope all the other stats point the way; certainly looks a strong selection.
    Paul

  2. Doshtosh

    These sure are depressing days, had hoped, after Monday, that we’d turned the corner, even one more win would have kept us afloat, but no way. Oh well, head down and keep hoping!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Depressing? Really?

      I though we were a little unlucky today. We’d have a lot closer had our jockey taken the same line as the winner from before the bypassed hurdle.
      Danny Cook seemed to ride as though he didn’t know the hurdle wasn’t to be jumped, he should never have been on that rail before and after it.

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