Stat of the Day, 15th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 Doncaster : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by 2 x head...

Friday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

Trainer Charlie Appleby is in fine form of late, clocking up 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last fortnight, with another 5 of the losers making the frame for a place strike rate of 66.6%.

Jockey James Doyle is also in decent nick, with a 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) record during the same time and when the two have combined recently, they are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR).

More long-term than just the past two weeks, Charlie's runners here at Doncaster are 23/112 (20.5% SR) for 26.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit and those numbers include...

  • males at 20/79 (25.3%) for 48.4pts (+61.3%)
  • over the last two seasons : 10/38 (26.3%) for 36.5pts (+96.1%)
  • males over the last two seasons are 9/32 (28.1%) for 40.2pts (+125.7%)
  • on soft ground : 3/16 (18.8%) for 10.8pts (+67.6%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.7pts (+130.3%)
  • on soft ground over the last two seasons : 3/4 975%) for 22.8pts (+570%)
  • under James Doyle over the last two seasons : 2/2 (100%) for 6.8pts (+340%)

I wouldn't be too surprised if Aqabah shortens overnight and eventually goes off as favourite and that wouldn't entirely be a bad thing, for although it's a reckless policy to blindly back favourites, profit can be made from backing the right ones. This brings us back to jockey James Doyle, who is 51/110 (46.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+20.5% ROI) on favourites this year, including...

  • on 2yr olds : 20/38 (52.6%) for 5.37pts (+14.1%)
  • over the 7f trip : 18/31 (58.1%) for 12.4pts (+40%)
  • for Charlie Appleby : 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.44pts (+19.3%)
  • on soft ground : 6/8 (75%) for 5.4pts (+67.5%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 2/3 (66.6%) for 1.34pts (+44.6%)

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG offered elsewhere! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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