Stat of the Day, 15th October 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2012

Mr Cracker was sent off the 6/1 3rd favourite in the end (non-runners in the race), but ran a clunker. He was up front but stopped to a walk some way out and it's scant consolation knowing that bigger wads of cash were lost than ours, as the horse was heavily backed in the morning.

Missunited, mentioned in dispatches, recorded a double silver for me personally when finishing second in the Irish version of the Cesarewitch, a day after Countrywide Flame had run up in the English version at Newmarket. Ho hum.

We move to more mundane stuff for Monday, though still a fair race for that day of the week, and we'll head for the cathedral city, and the...

5.00 Salisbury

This is a mile and three quarters handicap, Class 3, which will be run on very testing ground.

Today's Stat of the Day pick has a 100% record at the course, having won his only start here, over this trip on his penultimate start. In fact, he's had three runs over a mile and three quarters, and won all three of them, including a 'Junior' National Hunt Flat race.

His record on softer than good reads 1133116, which adds to my optimism that he can make the frame here. Who is 'he'?

Say hello to Stock Hill Fair, a horse trained by Brendan Powell. Powell has a brilliant Salisbury record himself, having trained five winners from just 22 runners at the track for a 58 unit profit.

Moreover, Powell is in blinding form at present, with five winners from 24 runners in the past fortnight. They were worth a profit of 54 units, so when they hit they pay nicely.

Pat Dobbs resumes riding responsibilities, having been atop when Stock Hill Fair made all here on that penultimate run, his only time riding the horse. Dobbs himself is showing a profit of 24.96 units at Salisbury in the last five years, making it his most profitable track in the country.

Stock Hill Fair does like to race prominently, and should only have Woolfall Treasure for company here, meaning he might get the race run to suit. The one reservation I have is that this is a step up in class, but that is factored into the price, and he'll surely love the light weight he's carrying here: it's the lowest he's ever carried!

So we've a horse with a hundred percent strike rate at the trip (3-3), and on the course (1-1); a trainer with excellent figures at the track and in fine form; and a jockey with his best figures at the track. The price on this one? 14/1 with bet365, and that's Best Odds Guaranteed, so we'll take it each way.

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.00 Salisbury.

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 15th October 2012

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Patrick.

      There was some 12’s this morning, but yes, it’s shortened up a fair bit since. In truth, they don’t always shorten, but – like Pricewise and Hugh Taylor – we are looking for horses which seem to be a bigger price than they ought to be…

      Matt

  1. Ed

    Hi Matt,

    Couldn’t agree with your selection more today as I’ve tipped it myself. It’s always a comfort when a service as good as yours goes with the same horse and the reasoning is exactly the same. My only gripe is my research was done an hour after your good self and I missed the 12’s and only managed the 10’s!

    Anyhow, keep up the good work and fingers crossed we both come out on top from today’s tip!

    Regards,

    Ed

  2. Jim Hdez

    Congrats on a good value selection. Listening to betfair commentary, there was a jockey who strongly tipped up The Betchworth Kid and said he would win easily.
    Stats should be renamed ‘The Place Bet Kings’ !!!!

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