Stat of the Day, 15th March 2017

Tuesday's Result :

8.15 Wolverhampton : Peachey Carnehan @ 7/2 BOG (21/10 after 40p R4!) WON at 2/1 Quickly away, made all, clear 2f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on strongly, unchallenged to win by 3 lengths

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Southwell...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brigadoon9/2 BOG

Why?

A consistent, if not prolific runners with 5 top 3 ( including 1 win) finishes in his last six outings and has finished as runner-up on each of his last three visits here, so we know he "gets" the track and this does look an easier task today.

His yard is in great form, as Mick Appleby has saddled up 13 winners from 59 (22% SR) over the last 30 days, generating level stakes profits of some 23.2pts at an ROI of 39.3% and of those 59 runners...

  • handicappers are 12/47 (25.5%) for 24.45pts (+52%)
  • with 'cappers priced at 6/4 to 10/1 winning 11 of 33 (33.3%) for 36.5pts (+110.6%).

Moreover, Mr Appleby also does rather well at this particular venue, which just happens to be less than 10 miles from his base and has a record of 121 winners from 645 (18.8% SR) on this track since the start of 2012 and although the overall profit of 33.1pts is a modest 5.13% ROI, to be able to back that many horses blindly and make any profit is not only good news, but also a great starting point for finding more profitable angles, such as...

  • handicappers are 107/546 (19.6%) for 33.7pts (+6.2%)
  • those last seen 11-25 days back are 55/269 (20.5%) for 81.5pts (+30.3%)
  • those priced at 9/4 to 6/1 (our general price range for SotD picks) are 60/262 (22.9%) for 41.6pts (+15.9%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 47/215 (21.9%) for 53.5pts (+24.9%)

AND...if you wanted to make a small micro-system from the above, you could back Mick's handicappers at 9/4 to 6/1 after 11-25 days off track. Doing so since 2012 gives 31 winners from 102 (30.4% SR) for 62.5pts (+61.2% ROI), of which Class 5 runners are 13/36 (36.1%) for 36.3pts (+100.8%)...

...providing grounds for...a 1pt win bet on Brigadoon 9/2 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, Betway, Paddy Power Totesport & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Tuesday, but PLEASE take the 5/1 BOG offered by Bet365, if you possibly can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

8 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 15th March 2017

  1. Blueeyes

    Great compensation for an average Cheltenham. Well done Chris and Brigadoon.
    Second in the first two races at Cheltenham but thanks to Geegeez preview I received stakes back as free bets under special offers
    Extra funds for investment tomorrow.
    Thanks Chris.

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