Stat of the Day, 15th July 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day: 15th July 2012

A no nonsense SotD yesterday, and another winner, this time at 3/1, making July a good month so far. Sunday means jumping day, and so we're headed for the land of Shakespeare and canal boats. Yes, we're off to theā€¦

3.50 Stratford

Taking a break from the trainer angles which have served us well recently (largely because there's nothing especially playable on that score today), I'm siding with a horse who has a proven penchant for the course.

The old boy in question is Jo Davis' Passato. This one is a bit of a Stratford specialist, having won three times over course and distance, including in this race in 2010.

He missed the race last year, but is back for another go today. Also in his favour is that he won last time out in a prep run on the flat, beating The Ducking Stool by seven lengths (!), with a further seven lengths and more (!!) back to the rest. That race was on soft ground, and Passato last three flat runs show figures of 131.

The Ducking Stool came out and won since (first two seven lengths clear of the rest), so the form is solid for the level.

Granted, those races were in a low enough grade, but his last chase run was a good second, beaten a short head, in a Class 2 handicap. There were some decent animals behind that day.

Today, there are just five five declared runners, and again I'm taking on a favourite that I think is a short enough price. Nobunaga can win - he's a course and distance winner himself, and will enjoy the soft ground - but there are others who will compete with him here, including of course, Passato.

Passato likes to lead, and it's probable he'll get his own way in front. Consequently, I think he'll take some passing with conditions ideal. 7/2 BOG (Ladbrokes) is perfectly fair in the circumstances.

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.50 Stratford.

4 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 15th July 2012

  1. Jim

    Good selection as usual Matt.

    Just a note to highlight the fact that Ladbrokes Best Odds Guaranteed doesn’t kick in until 10am on race day. I notice they are now down to 11/4 whereas bet365/Will hill who do offer BOG are 3/1. My money is with Will Hill.

    good luck all.

    Jim

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Good info Jim. I didn’t know that. Backed it last night at 7/2, but of course I was hoping that was generally available on the BOG.

      Matt

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