Wednesday's Result :
2.40 Towcester : Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG PU at 7/4 Prominent on outside, lost place before 5th, closed next, blundered and dropped to rear 7th, mistake next, blundered 12th, pulled up before 13th...
Next up is Thursday's...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG
A Class 3, 2m4.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,837 to the winner...
This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark (132) just 2lbs lower than today, but that was on heavy ground and today's going is expected to be a little easier underfoot. To date, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 on soft ground, 3 wins and a place from 5 in fields of 5 to 8 runners and 2 wins from 3 at this trip, so conditions look ideal for him.
His win in this race last year makes him 1 from 1 over course and distance and none of his rivals have won over track nor trip, never mind both!
His trainer Caroline Bailey is 21/97 (21.65% SR) for 30.98pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Leicester since 2009 and these include...
- handicappers : 17/68 (25%) for 27.74pts (+40.8%)
- chasers : 16/66 (24.2%) for 40.76pts (+61.8%)
- at trips of 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f : 14/59 (23.7%) for 40.4pts (+68.5%)
- at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 17/40 (42.5%) for 33.69pts (+84.2%)
- and 2017/18 :6/13 (46.2%) for 12.2pts (+93.8%)
Caroline Bailey / 2009-18 / Leicester / handicap chasers / priced at 5-1 and shorter over 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f = 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 17.27pts (+101.6% ROI), with 2017/18 showing 2 winners from 3 966.6%) for 8.33pts (+277.6%)
This horse is also a son of the mighty Midnight Legend and longer-term readers of my stuff will know of my fondness of this sire, mainly because his offspring win races and generate profit! One of my more generalised Midnight Legend micro-systems is at play here today and goes as follows...
UK NH jumps / 1m7f to 3m1f / good ground or softer / Class 2 to 4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / ran in past 8 months, but has had at least 3 weeks rest.
That's not as complicated in practice as it is in print and since the start of 2013, it has thrown up 129 winners from 705 (18.3% SR) runners from 281.48pts (+39.9% ROI), with the following subsets of data relevant today...
- handicaps : 92/480 (19.2%) for 222.85pts (+46.4%)
- males : 72/398 (18.1%) for 160.42pts (+40.3%)
- chasers : 43/245 (17.6%) for 71.55pts (+29.2%)
- soft ground : 50/238 (21%) for 130.73pts (+54.9%)
- Class 3 : 51/199 (25.6%) for 203.2pts (+102.1%)
- OR of 123 to 137 : 34/131 (26%) for 108.59pts (+82.9%)
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 12.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!