Stat of the Day, 15th February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Towcester : Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG PU at 7/4 Prominent on outside, lost place before 5th, closed next, blundered and dropped to rear 7th, mistake next, blundered 12th, pulled up before 13th...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 2m4.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,837 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark (132) just 2lbs lower than today, but that was on heavy ground and today's going is expected to be a little easier underfoot. To date, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 on soft ground, 3 wins and a place from 5 in fields of 5 to 8 runners and 2 wins from 3 at this trip, so conditions look ideal for him.

His win in this race last year makes him 1 from 1 over course and distance and none of his rivals have won over track nor trip, never mind both!

His trainer Caroline Bailey is 21/97 (21.65% SR) for 30.98pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Leicester since 2009 and these include...

  • handicappers : 17/68 (25%) for 27.74pts (+40.8%)
  • chasers : 16/66 (24.2%) for 40.76pts (+61.8%)
  • at trips of 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f : 14/59 (23.7%) for 40.4pts (+68.5%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 17/40 (42.5%) for 33.69pts (+84.2%)
  • and 2017/18  :6/13 (46.2%) for 12.2pts (+93.8%)

Caroline Bailey / 2009-18 / Leicester / handicap chasers / priced at 5-1 and shorter over 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f = 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 17.27pts (+101.6% ROI), with 2017/18 showing 2 winners from 3 966.6%) for 8.33pts (+277.6%)

This horse is also a son of the mighty Midnight Legend and longer-term readers of my stuff will know of my fondness of this sire, mainly because his offspring win races and generate profit! One of my more generalised Midnight Legend micro-systems is at play here today and goes as follows...

UK NH jumps / 1m7f to 3m1f / good ground or softer / Class 2 to 4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / ran in past 8 months, but has had at least 3 weeks rest.

That's not as complicated in practice as it is in print and since the start of 2013, it has thrown up 129 winners from 705 (18.3% SR) runners from 281.48pts (+39.9% ROI), with the following subsets of data relevant today...

  • handicaps : 92/480 (19.2%) for 222.85pts (+46.4%)
  • males : 72/398 (18.1%) for 160.42pts (+40.3%)
  • chasers : 43/245 (17.6%) for 71.55pts (+29.2%)
  • soft ground : 50/238 (21%) for 130.73pts (+54.9%)
  • Class 3 : 51/199 (25.6%) for 203.2pts (+102.1%)
  • OR of 123 to 137 : 34/131 (26%) for 108.59pts (+82.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 12.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

9 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 15th February 2018

  1. seng84

    Thanks Chris for taking the time to reply. Fantastic results…are the results recorded to BFSP? I’m sure I’ve read that they are somewhere or advised/BOG prices.
    Thanks again, I’ll be sure to be following.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      The actual P/L is based on BOG/advised prices from at least 2 available bookies at the time of posting.

      The stats used to frame a selection are at Betfair SP, because I have no idea what historical BOG odds would have been and BFSP is a better approximation than ISP. In reality, we’d expect to beat BFSP and we get very little feedback saying the odds I quote are unachievable.

      It’ll be good to have you along for the ride, but it’s a long-term project that will inevitably have its downturns.

      Chris

  2. IanJLiverm

    Hi Chris
    I was going to write and thank you for this year’s results and your diligence with SotD today anyway, because I know you didn’t go live with today’s message until after midnight and you have done a top notch analysis here after a long drive and family commitment. However in view of Seng’s email above I can confirm the absolute accuracy of your records. I say this because it’s simply not true of all tipping services including some high profile ones.
    With regard to my own situation, despite membership I have not followed SotD for the past two years, really because my wife has had some health issues, which fortunately now have a good prognosis but have been a bit all consuming, and I was very busy at work. I did still use the Gold tools when going racing and they served me well.
    However, I retired in January this year and have not missed an SotD selection in 2018.
    I am delighted to be back and a bit cross with myself for going away at all!
    Very best wishes
    Ian

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Ian,

      It’s good to have you back and thank you for your very kind words of support. I’m back from my half-term jaunt now and as such, “normal” service should resume from now until Easter at least 😀

      Whether I compile SotD or Steve/Matt does it, the aim is always a well researched logical suggestion : win or lose. We pride ourselves on our transparency even more than the results.

      Chris

  3. IanJLiverm

    Hi again Chris
    I quite accept what you say about your transparency. Integrity is the middle name at Geegeez and you have never over-egged your results or likely results, I have just watched Cross Park being soundly beaten despite going off odds on, which kind of bears out the warnings you give and the need for being in for the long term.
    Of course we have also had a couple of selections this year which have drifted before winning!
    Geegeez has so much more on the site than a tipping service and I have had 25/1 winners using instant expert,
    Anyway, I am glad I wrote to you, and that I am back with Geegeez and SotD for 2018,
    Ian

  4. seng84

    great to have a transparent service. So many tipsters try everything to mislead their results when all I want to see is a month by month P/L at level one point (or 0.5 ew) stakes at achievable prices, I don’t think it’s a big ask and great that you can provide it. thanks for taking the time to reply…shame about today’s selection but it would seem a lot of people will have lost a lot more than I did and it was a cracking result for the bookies.

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