Stat of the Day, 15th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2014

A total of three non-runners yesterday saw our advised 9/2 bet on Louis Vee, finally settled at 3.15/1 after the obligatory Rule 4 deductions. Nevertheless, this was still a cracking price, as our selection won pretty comfortably in the end at measly odds of just 11/10 SP.

Netting almost three times the SP profit once again highlights the need to use the BOG bookies and the 3.15pts are most welcome, as we look to continue our recent upturn in form.

Saturdays are generally tough to call, but we think we've a decent chance of securing our hat-trick in the...

4.10 Gowran Park:

Where I'm backing Willie Mullins' 4 yr old debutante Florishwell Dete at 9/4 BOG with Stan James.

It's not often you can find a track where you can back all Willie Mullins' runners blindly and still show a profit. Just like the other powerhouses of the sport, we tend to see a high number of winners and plenty of prize money, but not generally such high strike rates nor profit percentages.

However, since the start of 2012, if you'd backed every one of his 71 runners here at Gowran Park, you'd have bagged yourself 25 winners already, a strike rate of some 35.2% and if you'd placed £10 on each of them, you'd be sitting on £905.20 profit a return on your stakes of almost 127.5%. There aren't many places where you can get returns like that from such a high-profile trainer.

Now, Willie has actually got seven runners competing on this heavy ground today, so we should expect at least two or three winners from them. All I need to do is get the right one!

Well, the ground is in his favour here: since the start of 2012, his runners have performed very well in INH races on heavy ground, as a record of 64 winners from 224 races (28.6%) will testify. Backing all of them would have seen a profit of 57.4pts to date, an ROI of 25.6% with three winners from nine here at Gowran Park.

This of course, doesn't explain fully why I'm siding with Florishwell Dete, who makes her debut for the yard today after a couple of minor races in France, winning over 11.5f last time out.

The Mullins team has a good record with horses turning out for them for the first time, providing they've not been overworked in the past. In the same time frame as above (ie since the turn of 2012), Mr Mullins has given a first outing to 123 horses, with a massive 56 (45.5% SR) of them returned as winners, generating level stakes profits of 37.6pts (+30.6% ROI) in the process.

From these 123 newcomers, we can also see that their record on soft or heavy ground reads 27 winners from 56 (48.2% SR) for 28.8pts profit (+51.4% ROI).

The last piece of reinforcement for the selection comes from retained jockey Ruby Walsh himself. Ruby doesn't ride here as often as other tracks, but an 11/34 (32.6% SR) for 16.5pts (+48.5% SR) record in recent years would suggest he knows his way around the place and he was given the choice of the two Mullins' runners in this race and he chose the debutante.

Ruby's a far better judge of a horse than I'll ever be, so I'm more than happy to back Florishwell Dete at 9/4 BOG today. That's with Stan James, as she's already dropping as low as 13/8 in places, as you'll see when you...

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