Stat of the Day, 15th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.15 Taunton : Workbench @ 11/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Self Cert (Off Colour)

Next up is Friday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old Mare sired by Midnight Legend, whose female handicap hurdlers racing over 2m3f to 3m1.5f are 86/580 (14.8% SR) for 248pts (+42.8% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • in female only races : 42/221 (19%) for 74.32pts (+33.6%)
  • at class 4 : 37/221 (16.7%) for 131.3pts (+59.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 23/120 (19.2%) for 40.9pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.1pts (+46.7%)

She's trained by Philip Hobbs and drops down a class today and over the last 4 yrs, runners from the yard dropping down a grade in NH handicaps are 33/190 (17.4% SR) for 82.2pts (+43.2% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 13/71 (18.3%) for 62.5pts (+88.1%)
  • and females are 5/11 (45.5%) for 21.5pts (+195.1%)

She's also Philip's only runner of the day, yet embarks on a 470-mile round trip from the Somerset base and this is relevant, because over the last 6 years, when having just one runner, Mr Hobbs is 70/312 (22.4% SR) for 60.3pts (+19.3% ROI), whilst in NH handicaps during December to February on tracks 200 miles or more away from his yard, the Hobbs runners are 10/55 (18.2% SR) for 33.2pts (+60.4% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 26.6pts (+106.4%)
  • here at Doncaster : 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.1pts (+205.7%)
  • and Doncaster hurdlers are 4/10 (40%) for 39.12pts (+391.2%)

..pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 at 5.45pm on Thursday whilst both Betfred & Totesport matched that price despite not going BOG until morning and there's plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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