Stat of the Day, 15th August 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.30 Beverley : Archie Perkins @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, effort when not much room inside final 2f, ridden 1f out, soon every chance, kept on, held towards finish)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Visionara @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

A lightly raced 3 yr old filly makes her handicap debut on what will be only her fourth outing to date, the latest of which was a runner-up finish when beaten by just half a length at Chelmsford in a higher grade twelve days ago.

Her trainer, Simon Crisford's runners are 12 from 31 here on the polytrack at Lingfield when sent off at odds of 5/4 to 9/2 (should be there today) with that excellent 38.7% strike rate generating 19.4pts profit at a more than acceptable 62.6% ROI, from which...

  • Class 5 runners are 8/17 (47.1%) for 14.17pts (+83.4%)
  • handicappers are 7/17 (41.2%) for 15.82pts (+93.1%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/15 (40%) for 11.56pts (+77.1%)
  • whilst those rested for less than 3 weeks are 4/10 (40%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%)

And as today is Visionara's handicap debut, it's worth knowing/noting that Mr Crisford's handicap debutants sent off shorter than 10/1 are 26/96 (27.1% SR) for 28.4pts (+29.6% ROI) and these include...

  • 16/54 (29.6%) for 31.31pts (+58%) who were beaten LTO
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 26.47pts (+67.9%) on the A/W
  • 9/20 (45%) for 27.45pts (+137.3%) over 7f
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 11.22pts (+38.7%) at Class 5
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.93pts (+21.5%) in August
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 4.48pts (+74.7%) here at Lingfield

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Visionara @ 9/2 or 4/1 BOG as was available in several places (Bet365 had the best price) at 6.05pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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