Tuesday's Result :
3.40 Chepstow : Manton Grange @ 4/1 non-BOG 7th at 4/1 (Chased leaders stands side, outpaced 3f out, lost place over 1f out, soon weakened and eased down)
Wednesday's pick (from which I could do with a winner!) goes in the...
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Highly Strung at 11/2 BOG
A very consistent 3 yr old gelding whose record over the last three months reads 2210213 and having won two starts ago, wasn't disgraced when disgraced when third at a higher level 15 days ago despite missing the break.
He now drops in class off the same mark as LTO and conditions should suit him, as he has 3 wins and 8 places from 15 races over 6f, he has 3 wins and 3 places from 9 on good to firm, he's 2 from 7 with 2 further places under today's jockey and he has a win and a runner-up finish from two previous cracks at Class 4 racing.
His rider couldn't be in better form either, as Silvestre de Sousa comes here with 14 winners from 40 rides (35% SR) over the last 8 days, including 2 winners on this track on Tuesday taking his tally here to 22 wins from 121 rides (18.2% SR).
Trainer Mark Johnston interestingly sends this horse on a long journey to race here bypassing Beverley, which is much closer to his yard and where he has a 22.8% strike rate, possibly just to hook up with Senor de Sousa, because when they pair up here at Yarmouth, they are 6/29 (20.7% SR) for profits of 10.16pts at an ROI of 35.1%.
Of those 29 runners...
- handicappers are 6/23 (26.1%) for 16.16pts (+70.3%)
- those with a run in the last 20 days are 6/19 (31.6%) for 20.16pts (+106.1%)
- males are 5/19 (26.3%) for 18.41pts (+96.9%)
- 3 yr olds are 4/16 (25%) for 9.97pts (+62.3%)
- at odds of 11/4 to 6/1 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 13.06pts (+118.8%)
- at Class 4 : 2/8 (25%) for 10.91pts (+136.4%)
AND...Johnston / de Sousa / Yarmouth / male / handicaps / 1-20 dslr = 5/12 (41.7% SR) for 25.41pts (+211.8% ROI), of which
- 3 yr olds are 3/8 (37.5%) for 16.22pts (+202.8%)
- those priced at 11/4 to 6/1 are 4/7 (57.1%) for 17.06pts (+243.8%)
- and 3 yr olds priced at 11/4 to 6/1 are 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 7.87pts (+262.4% ROI)
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Highly Strung at 11/2 BOG, which was offered by Betfair Sports at 5.45pm on Tuesday with plenty of 5/1 BOG available elsewhere. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...
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