Stat of the Day, 14th October 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th October 2012

Despite seemingly being a hopeless cause yesterday in a 34 runner field, Countrywide Flame beat all bar one of his rivals. The winner, Aaim To Prosper, was the ultimate stats buster. He was the joint second highest weighted winner ever, and the first horse ever to regain the Cesarewitch (he won in 2010 too). In truth, it was a brilliant training performance, and a superb ride from Kieren Fallon, who showed he's still got plenty of magic in his riding boots despite the passage of time.

Still we got paid on the place, and made a small profit on the day.

I was tempted to roll with the Irish Cesarewitch today (only 27 runners!), and quite liked Missunited from a stats perspective... But instead I've gone with the only very marginally more straightforward Munster National Handicap Chase. That’s the…

4.25 Limerick

Sixteen runners over three soft miles and sixteen fences. Hmm.

The route in here is a horse's impressive course record. Specifically, Mr Cracker has won four of his eight chases, and been third on three further occasions. All four chase wins were here at Limerick, where his record reads P1111.

That quartet of victories includes two Grade 2 wins, and Mr Cracker was last seen when taking bronze in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse, very good form in the context of this race.

He's won on soft ground, and won his only previous try at three miles.

Mr Cracker will carry top weight in this Grade A race (which equates to a Listed handicap chase). Given that he's a dual Grade 2 winner, and Grade 1 placed, that's fair enough as he's the best horse here. However, he does have an absence of 539 days to overcome.

Again, this apparent negative may not be, as I've written about handicap chases running off a layoff previously. Long and short is that they often run very well fresh.

So conditions are in our favour, and the money is coming for him too. He's 9/1 with William Hill, best odds guaranteed.

I’ll be wagering each way (beware this sixteen runner field would only pay three places if one horse pulls out), and looking to Davy Russell to bring home the bacon on Mr Cracker.

Do make sure you…

Click here for all the latest odds for the 4.25 Limerick.

12 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 14th October 2012

  1. Johnny5

    Matt – you’re really going for the magical touches this weekend … A cavalry charge of 35 followed by a beast that hasn’t run for over a year and a half !! Good luck fella – it’s been well backed already to best price 7/1 and lower … So it’s not just stats speaking there surely ! You’ve another live one

    Interestingly I’ve been given that Mis Sunited at the Curragh by a reliable Irish source – so at 10/1 it makes for a nice ew double today !!
    Good luck Matt and thanks

  2. Ian L

    Hi Matt – within an hour of your post the horse is best price 13/2 – it’s the swervice factor again! Today I instinctively like the bet, in my experience finding a horse that can genuinely jump three miles in soft ground is a great start and after the lay off Mr Cracker either will or won’t be able to, so I’m on 1pt to win at current price! Good luck to all.

  3. Mondo Ray

    Placed to Win doesn’t cover races of this calibre, but as I’m a daily user of SoTD (which seems to be the hottest service on the block recently), I’m having my usual punt and looking forward to watching it on the telly. What was that song again? Oh yeah … Laaazy Sunday arfternoon…

  4. drumlin20Ivan

    Matt,

    Really enjoy your stats. I was wondering if you could answer a question for me Can you tell me how the computer forecasts are worked out ie first and second payouts ? Me and my friends have been arguing over this for some time. I realize the exacta is a pool bet and the payout is divided by the number of winners less the tote commission. However we can never work out how the Computer F/C is arrived at.
    Your help would be greatly appreciated.
    Thanks Ivan

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi drumlin20lvan

      The CSF (computer straight forecast) was originally calculated using the odds of all runners. Nothing simple/straightforward like multiplying the winner’s odds by the second horse (or a fraction of that horse’s odds).

      But there was a problem when horses drawn in close proximity of tracks where a bias existed were out-running their odds and costing bookmakers plenty. (My personal view is that the starting prices surely reflected those biases already).

      In any case, that’s a verbose way of saying, I don’t really know!

      Best,
      Matt

      1. oneman

        Calculating the CSF is a tad above your average punters maths skills and i dont think the maths could be done in a couple of mins after the race,(unless your Steven Hawkins)
        The CSF is based on a complex formula which takes into consideration the prices of the winners, the number of outsiders, and other weird things. The reason for this complex formula is to protect bookies from being stung with large payouts in unusual circumstances such as when a 1/66 f unplaces etc.

        I had thought of analysing the formula to find out where bookies are overprotecting themselves. If the formula reveals that the CSF returns under the odds in a certain race then that is the race you should back the Exacta. If the formula reveals that the CSF returns close to, or over the odds in a certain race then that is the race you should weigh in heavily with the CSF.

        The CSF Formula
        You can request a copy of the formula from the Association of British Bookmakers. The copy I got sent was dated 1997? as I don’t know if this is a mistake or not as I had assumed the formula changes regularly – it is constantly reviewed to take into consideration changes to the rules of racing. Maybe there is someone out there who loves this kind of thing and can understand it.

        http://www.flatstats.co.uk/images/horse_racing/csf_formula_1.gif
        http://www.flatstats.co.uk/images/horse_racing/csf_formula_2.gif
        http://www.flatstats.co.uk/images/horse_racing/csf_formula_3.gif
        http://www.flatstats.co.uk/images/horse_racing/csf_formula_4.gif

  5. Bruce.

    If the winner turns its hand to jumping it could become a cracking long distance hurdler. I should have seen the writing on the wall having 3 previous seconds in races in races beforehand.

    Bruce.

  6. bully's left foot

    Hi Matt, still recovering from yesterdays f/c in the CES. Mr. Cracker looks like a cracker. I’m putting Admiral Berry in the rev f/c with this one.

  7. drumlin20Ivan

    Matt,
    Thanks to yourself and oneman for your thoughts on the forecast. Its as clear as mud but perhaps this is the way the powers that be want it. I would just like to check the payments and keep them honest. If we dont know the formula we could paid short.

    Thanks, Ivan

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      The reality Ivan, is that people have probably been paid short for decades on the CSF. For most, it’s a bit late to start thinking about whether they’re getting value, alas.

      Best,
      Matt

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