Stat of the Day, 14th November 2017

Monday's Result :

4.00 Kempton : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Chased leaders, outpaced before 2 out, 4th and well held when awkward last.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £6,963 to the winner.

And an 8 yr old gelding who finished the last campaign in fine form with 2 wins and 2 places from his last five starts (14313). He's been off track for 8 months, as have many November runners and with regards to his stamina today, wins at 2m4.5f & 2m5.5f allied to a record of 2 wins and 2 places from five on Soft should help dispel any fears about staying.

His trainer, Neil Mulholland, already has 2 wins and 2 places from five runners at this venue this year (P3113), whilst jockey Tom Scudamore is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 16.9pts (+30.7% ROI) here since 2010, broken down as follows...

  • on males : 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.1pts (+50.2%)
  • on 6 to 10 yr olds : 10/34 (29.4%) for 30.4pts (+89.3%)
  • on ground worse than good to soft : 9/31 (29%) for 14.3pts (+46.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/31 (25.8%) for 22.9pts (+73.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.8pts (+63.9%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 22.8pts (+78.6%)
  • over fences : 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+165%)
  • at 2m3.5f/2m4f : 4/16 (25%) for 7.38pts (+46.1%)
  • and on horses returning from a layoff of over 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.73pts (+108.1%)

There's also the possibility that Arden Denis will go off as favourite and whilst blindly backing favs is a shortcut to the poor house, it's worth noting that this year, Tom Scudamore is 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 13pts (+41.9% ROI) on chase favourites, with handicappers winning 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 13pts (+48%)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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