Stat of the Day, 14th November 2017

Monday's Result :

4.00 Kempton : Salto Chisco @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 4/1 Chased leaders, outpaced before 2 out, 4th and well held when awkward last.

Next up is Tuesday's...

1.50 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+, Novice Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £6,963 to the winner.

And an 8 yr old gelding who finished the last campaign in fine form with 2 wins and 2 places from his last five starts (14313). He's been off track for 8 months, as have many November runners and with regards to his stamina today, wins at 2m4.5f & 2m5.5f allied to a record of 2 wins and 2 places from five on Soft should help dispel any fears about staying.

His trainer, Neil Mulholland, already has 2 wins and 2 places from five runners at this venue this year (P3113), whilst jockey Tom Scudamore is 12/55 (21.8% SR) for 16.9pts (+30.7% ROI) here since 2010, broken down as follows...

  • on males : 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.1pts (+50.2%)
  • on 6 to 10 yr olds : 10/34 (29.4%) for 30.4pts (+89.3%)
  • on ground worse than good to soft : 9/31 (29%) for 14.3pts (+46.1%)
  • in handicaps : 8/31 (25.8%) for 22.9pts (+73.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 8/31 (25.8%) for 19.8pts (+63.9%)
  • at odds of 2/1 to 15/2 : 9/29 (31%) for 22.8pts (+78.6%)
  • over fences : 5/16 (31.25%) for 26.4pts (+165%)
  • at 2m3.5f/2m4f : 4/16 (25%) for 7.38pts (+46.1%)
  • and on horses returning from a layoff of over 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.73pts (+108.1%)

There's also the possibility that Arden Denis will go off as favourite and whilst blindly backing favs is a shortcut to the poor house, it's worth noting that this year, Tom Scudamore is 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 13pts (+41.9% ROI) on chase favourites, with handicappers winning 12 of 27 (44.4%) for 13pts (+48%)... us... a 1pt win bet on Arden Denis @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply... here for the betting on the 1.50 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

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