Stat of the Day, 14th March 2013
I was right to suggest that the odds on favourite would be the main danger to us yesterday if he handled the new surface well enough. As it happens, he seemed to really "get" the Fibresand and fairly bolted home beating our selection by six lengths easing down! Our 2nd place at 3/1 further improved James Tate's Southwell record, but did nothing for our bottom line.
We'll take a break from the A/W action today and we'll have a crack at a handicap hurdle. It isn't, however, the Pertemps at Cheltenham, but more rather a Class 5, three-mile contest on Good To Soft (Softer in parts) ground. We're expecting a field of fourteen for the...
Tim Vaughan has a pretty decent record here at Towcester in recent times with his hurdlers boasting a 26.1% strike rate here at Towcester since the start of 2011. These figures have been achieved courtesy of six winners from twenty-three runners during that study period.
Tim has two entries today, Kings Sunset will be taking on the fancied pair of Opera Og and Roll the Dice in the 3.45 chase contest, where he'll do well to even grab a place, but a small 14/1 E/W punt might not be the worst bet you'll make today!
It's the preceding race that attracts me today and Mr Vaughan's only hurdler here, Duneen Point.
Duneen Point actually took 10 attempts to get off the mark when finally breaking his duck at Fontwell on Boxing Day (2m4f, heavy) and he followed up that run with a very creditable showing over today's course and distance at 9/1 here last month.
He finished third that day, a length and a half off the winner and a half-length behind Bravo Riquet who he reopposes today on slightly better terms. The two are closely matched, but the extra pound might just make all the difference for our selection to reverse the placings.
Although Duneen Point's sole victory came over 2m 4f (today is 3m), he has some decent rides under his belt at today's trip already with a record of 234P3 with four of those five contests being run on soft ground. Those runs allied to his win on heavy ground means he shouldn't be found wanting for stamina, nor should he mind the cut in the ground.
His propensity to find one or two horses slightly too good on the day lead me down the place betting route and as such today's play is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Duneen Point at 6/1 BOG. This price is pretty much available everywhere, so for your preferred bookie, simply...