Stat of the Day, 14th July 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.45 Epsom : Tapis Libre @ 9/4 BOG WON at 7/4 Tracked leader, led over 6f out, headed over 2f out, ridden and rider dropped whip 1f out, rallied to regain lead inside final furlong, just held on gamely.

Friday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Ascot...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Camerone10/3 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly who has won two of her four starts to date, including a win at Beverley last time out 24 days ago when tackling this 1m4f trip for the first time.

As well as being in clearly good form, she also benefits from the weight for age allowance that sees 3yr olds given an advantage in open age handicaps with the allowance increasing the longer the race becomes.

This allowance isn't a secret, but some trainers are better than others at making the most of it and if you want a trainer who's amongst the most adept, step forward Ralph Beckett.

Ralph's 3yr olds getting the WFA in open age Flat (Turf) handicaps at trips of 1m4f to 1m6.5f are 29/88 (33% SR) for level stakes profits of 57.6pts at an impressive ROI of 65.5% and to be honest, those numbers are good enough for me!

However, if you want to quantify how well those numbers stack up in a contest like today's, then I can tell you that the 88 runners are...

  • 28/82 (34.2%) for 53.45pts (+65.2%) having run in the last 60 days
  • 22/67 (32.8%) for 36.8pts (+54.9%) over a mile and half
  • 24/66 (36.4%) for 71.7pts (+108.6%) at odds of 11/8 to 10/1
  • 20/56 (35.7%) for 30.84pts (+55.1%) from his female runners
  • 12/24 (50%) for 27.02pts (+112.6%) from LTO winners
  • 8/23 (34.8%)  for 19.03pts (+82.7%) at Class 3
  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 8.41pts (+36.6%) in fillies races
  • 8/16 (50%) for 17.02pts (+106.4%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.81pts (+196.2%) ridden by Harry Bentley
  • and 1/2 (50%) for 8.19pts (+409.5%) here at Ascot

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Camerone10/3 BOG which was available from half a dozen firms at 5.50pm on Thursday. Those of you with an unrestricted Bet365 account however, should take the 7/2 BOG offered there. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Ascot..

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 14th July 2017

      1. Chris Worrall Post author

        Other than being a gelding rather than a filly, yes, that’s right.
        But at the time I wrote the piece, I thought mine represented better value. I’m not keen on Mount Moriah at the prices available, up in trip and up 12lbs.

        I can see MM winning, for sure, but I wouldn’t be on at 9/4 and shorter and he’s equally likely to finish unplaced.

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.