Stat of the Day, 14th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2015

I got back from the Monday school run to find Fire In Babylon had been withdrawn from his intended engagement, meaning I've nothing to report on, so I'll move swiftly on to Tuesday's runner, who goes in the...

6.10 Thirsk :

Where I've just taken 9/4 BOG from Bet365 about Rae Guest's 3 yr old filly Ellas Honour who probably won't have to improve too much on her recent back to back runner-up finishes to land this maiden.

I like backing Mr Guest's runners because for at least as long as I've been here at Geegeez, he has been profitable to follow blindly!

In fact since the start of 2012 (I actually got here 6 months earlier!), if you'd put £10 on each of his 593 runners to date, you'd have backed 97 winners (16.4% SR) and made yourself £1174 (ROI of 19.8%) at Betfair SP; the closest approximation I can give to BOG prices.

From those 593 runners, his 2/3 yr olds are 73/288 (18.8% SR) for 183pts (+47.2% ROI), whilst his runners in maidens are 36/170 (21.2% SR) for 149.4pts (+87.9% ROI).

Combining the above tells us that Rae Guest's 2/3 yr old maidens are 33/162 (20.4% SR) for 150.3pts (+92.8% ROI) over the last three and a half years or so, of which those running at trips of 6 to 10 furlings are 30/140 (21.4% SR) for 156.5pts (+111.8% ROI), which is a nice little 40 bets per year microsystem that should look after you well.

We know Ellas Honour is running well, having finished 422 in her three starts to date and only beaten by 1.25 lengths last time out, we also now know her trainer fares well in these maiden contests, but in apprentice jockey races, the rider can often make a huge difference and I was really pleased to see Rob Hornby's name next to our runner on the racecard.

Rob is riding really well at the moment and overcame some equipment difficulties to win a Double Dutch race for us at York last Friday and was back amongst the winners on Monday again. He's clearly got some ability as proved by his career record of 32 wins from 259 rides (12.4% SR) that have generated 141.9pts (+54.8% ROI) profit already.

Rae Guest also does well with his form horses turned back out fairly quickly and more specifically those who finished in the first four last time out and only get 4 to 15 days to rest!

These horses are 25/118 since the start of 2010 with that resultant 21.2% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 15.1pts at an ROI of 12.8% with those sent off in the broad 11/8 to 11/1 (my usual starting points) odds range winning 22 of 93 (23.7% SR) for 33.9pts (+36.4% ROI). Those 93 runners are 4/11 (36.4% SR) for 5.5pts (+50% ROI) in maidens!

Ellas Honour looks ready to win here, she's already come very close twice in this standard of race, on this going and over this trip and for me she's the one to beat at 9/4 BOG with Bet365. I've posted early today, because I've got to go out for the evening, so when the market forms fully, you'll be able to see all the odds by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 6.10 Thirsk

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 14th July 2015

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      It is indeed. Well spotted.
      I was looking at one in the following race and I’ve mixed my Hornby/Guest combos up!

      Thankfully the jockey/trainer angle wasn’t really a cornerstone to the bet, but it does suggest that Isntshesomething might go well in the 6.40!

      I’ve amended the piece now.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I saw it hit 1.06, didn’t realise it went so low.
      I’m not quite sure why she went so low, as she never really looked like winning, unless that happened as she drew alongside the winner with a furlong to run.

      Most peculiar.

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