Stat of the Day, 14th January 2013

Stat of the Day: 14/01/13

Stat of the Day: 14/01/13

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2013

We finally dragged ourselves off the cold list yesterday as Jimmy Quinn rode an almost perfect race on the back of the old stager Kames Park yesterday. He sat and waited and held the horse up until there just enough of a gap in the final furlong and once he hit the front, he wasn't going to be caught. He actually seemed to still have something in reserve. We had 10% shaved off our advised 6/1 price, but even at 5.4/1, we were paid out at almost double the 11/4 SP. (The old value chestnut again!)

At the time of writing this, there were doubts over Plumpton's meeting and I fancy a change away from Wolverhampton, so we're off to not-so-leafy Lingfield today to look at another horse in a purple patch after a previous lengthy losing run. The race in question is a one-mile Class 5 A/W handicap and seven runners are set to go to post for the...

3.30 Lingfield

In the last twelve months, Lingfield's polytrack has been kind to Robert Mills' horses and there have been a few appearing here. In fact, Robert has saddled up no less than 31 runners at Lingfiled in the last twelve months to very good effect. Far too many runners for me to give you one of my long form lines, but the results are impressive. Ten winners in that time represents a strike rate of 32.26%, which is not only excellent, it also helps generate profits of some 18.6pts at SP: a welcome profit on stakes of almost 60%.

E/W backers, whilst more cautious in their approach, have nevertheless also been rewarded by backing Mr Mills's horses here: 19 successful bets from the 31 is a 61.3% strike rate for a decent wedge of profit: some 27pts (43.5% POI).

It's hardly going to come as a shock to our regulars to hear that Robert only has the one runner today: the in-form Club House.

Club House embarked on an inauspicious flat campaign last May and had six outings on turf in total, failing to trouble the judges in returning figures of 544765. He had his first A/W run on 25th June and was a losing odds on favourite that day. In fact he had five runs on A/W tracks from 25th June to 8th December in mainly Class 5 events (1 race at Class 4) and he pretty much went the same way as his turf form: 23547 in total.

This sequence took his career stats to 0 wins and just 2 places from 11 runs, but there was little / no consistency in the booking of races for him. The 11 races had been contested at Classes 2 (once), 4 (5 times) and 5 (5 times) and at a staggeringly wide array of distances from 5f (1), 6f (4), 7f (2), 1m (2), 1m1f (1) and 1m2f (1).

Then a month ago today (14/12/12), he was entered in a Class 6 race over a mile (today's Course and Distance) and he returned as a 6/4 winner to break his duck. he was 4th of 9 runners here at Lingfield on New Year's Eve (Class 5: 7 furlongs), before landing back to back Class 4 Handicaps here this month: the latest was another course and distance win last Saturday.

So after a pretty nondescript start to his career, he comes here today as a triple course winner: twice over course & distance and his record here at Lingfield in the last month is 141 for +12.5opts, so he's in a rich vein of form.

He is, of course penalised 6lbs for that latest win, but he is dropping back down in class today and carries a 7lb claimer to boot. All that considered, he still stands a great chance of scoring a 12-day hat-trick, but we'll not be getting anywhere near Saturday's winning odds of 7/1. I'd have thought 2/1 would be nearer the mark.

As it stands, there's does still seem to be a little value in the price on offer, so my play today is a 1pt win bet onĀ Club House at 11/4 BOG with Bet365. You can, of course, always check the odds on offer elsewhere by taking the opportunity to...

 

Click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Lingfield

 

10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 14th January 2013

  1. Stuart

    Anyone reading this (before 2pm Monday) who took yesterday’s SotD advice to be on the winner at Bet365 probably has a free bet awaiting them with the same bookie in the 2 o’clock race today. The winner yesterday was in their so-called feature race free bet offer, which as far as I know is open to everyone.

    1. Ian L

      Thanks Stuart, I did not see that this time, but interestingly I did not have a notice of the bet either. No notice in my inbox etc. Be interested in any other comments?

      1. Chris Worrall Post author

        Hi Ian,
        I didn’t receive any notification about this either. However, I backed Neil’s Pride in the 2.00 Lingfield today at 6/1 E/W and bet365 refunded my win stake after my horse came 2nd.
        Check your messages in your bet365 member area.

        Chris

      2. Stuart

        To qualify for the free bet, you have to be on a winner in their feature race at 4/1 or higher. I was with Sunday’s SotD, and hopefully many on here were too, and I think we must all have got the free bet for Monday’s 14.00 race then. However, if you got on under 4/1 on Sunday, unfortunately, you wouldn’t.

        Could that be it? If not, I’d have a not-so-quiet word with Bet365 if I were you.

        I’d point out (in case you didn’t already know) that they don’t really trumpet your free bet from the rooftops – you have to go looking for it. The easiest way is to log into your Bet365 account and check messages. The one on Sunday looked like this:

        Congratulations on successfully selecting Kames Park (4.00 Wolverhampton). Our fantastic Feature Race Free Bet Offer means that you have now qualified for a free bet to the amount of xxx (same as my Sunday stake) on the 2:00 Lingfield on 14/01/2013. Remember back any single winner at 4/1 on a bet365 Feature Race and you can have a free bet to the same stake on the next bet365 Feature Race.

        If your free bet also wins at odds of 4/1 or more, you qualify for a free bet on the next bet365 Feature Race. Keep backing those winners and we’ll keep giving you free bets!

        They then add a link to here:
        http://www.bet365.com/extra/?ContentPath=Promotions%2cHorseRacing%2cFeatureRaces

        I hope that works generally and not just for me, but please accept my apologies if it doesn’t – however, this info is quite easy to find on 365’s website.

  2. Bob Smith

    Hi Chris – Great win yesterday. I see Wayne has disappeared back into his World. Funny how the doubters never reappear after a good win. Mr Quinn squeezing through the smallest of gaps was highlight of the weekend. Although B.G. somehow staying on Tetlami ran it pretty close.
    Thanks for the continuing fun, appreciated.

  3. Chris Worrall Post author

    Hi everyone, yes the horse was declared a non-runner shortly after 9am this morning, some 8 hours or so after I’d gone to press, I’m afraid. I don’t know whether this horse will be SotD next time out, but if he reappears soon under similar conditions to today (and at the right price, of course!), he’ll be worth considering as a bet.

    But SotD policy is, non-runner = no bet today.

    Bob, yes I enjoyed Tetlami’s run too: a good performance there and yes, Mr Quinn earned his money for us yesterday: a very good ride.

    See you tomorrow, guys.

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