Stat of the Day, 14th February 2018

Tuesday's Result :

2.20 Southwell : Star Ascending @ 9/4 BOG WON at 11/4 Held up in mid-division, took keen hold, headway to chase leaders over 4f out, led over 1f out, ridden clear inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths...

We aim to keep the current run going with Wednesday's...

2.40 Towcester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG

A Class 4, 3m0.5f novice handicap chase on soft ground worth £5,588 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a winner here at Towcester on soft ground just six days ago, beating the field by six lengths at a trip just half a furlong further than today's contest.

His trainer, Fergal O'Brien is in fine form right now with 6 winners from 12 (50% SR) over the past fortnight producing level stakes profits of 8.34pts at an ROI of 69.5% with 4 winners from 6 (66.6% SR) for 9.84pts (+164% ROI) in the last 7 days with his chasers finishing 1P111 so far this month!

More long-term, his NH handicap record since the start of 2013 stands at 124 winners from 839 (14.8% SR) for 142pts at an ROI of 16.9%, including the following of relevance today...

  • males : 106/691 (15.3%) for 144.85pts (+21%)
  • chasers : 77/474 (16.2%) for 121.21pts (+25.6%)
  • on Soft : 26/169 (15.4%) for 28.72pts (+17%)
  • 8 yr olds : 28/161 (17.4%) for 64.75pts (+40.2%)
  • ridden by Alain Cawley : 10/91 (11%) for 60.23pts (+66.2%)
  • and here at Towcester : 6/35 (17.1%) for 10.11pts (+28.9%)

WITH...6-10 yr old male chasers on soft ground winning 18 of 87 (20.7% SR) for 47.16pts (+54.2% ROI)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG which was widely available at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Towcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

And a quick heads up...I'm on airport duty tomorrow evening, collecting my daughter from her German exchange trip, so Thursday's pick will be very late like Tuesday's was, if not later!

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

6 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 14th February 2018

  1. davewood53

    Well, Chris, it doesn’t often happen but I was dead set against Star Ascending today. Then 5 mins before the off I gave in. Kept the faith, should have known better than to doubt. Thanks.

    And if I read it right, the between the lines of Matt’s response to this weeks betting site award was to place the basis for it firmly onto your contribution. Quite right too, well done and thanks for a great year.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      No, I don’t think that the basis of the award was placed on SotD and I don’t think that was the implied implication. I think it was mentioned first in a list of factors that make up the whole Gold package simply because it’s the longest running feature of the package.

      Chris

      PS Well done for changing your mind today

      1. davewood53

        Of course, Chris. But, all I can say is that my first reply to geegeez back in the day was that I appreciated it because it WAS NOT a tipping site because I wanted a means to inform my own selections. This holds true, but I have learned (over 18 months) to factor your judgement beyond my own calculations.
        So, for me, you have become the first point of reference when logging in (and I don’t think of myself as a lazy punter). Again, many thanks. Good man, so you are – as your modesty in this context reveals.

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