Stat of the Day, 14th February 2017

Monday's Result :

2.50 Wolverhampton : Haraka @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/4 Tracked leaders, carried wide over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong.

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

We've got a 9 yr old gelding with a 3 from 6 record over fences (1311 in his last four outings) and under today's conditions, his chase record looks very good...

  • 3/6 plus a place under Brian Hughes, 3/5 at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m1f,  2/5 plus a place at Class 4
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 since moving to George Bewley's yard, 2/4 plus a place on soft ground
  • 2/3 in fields of 1-7 runners, 2/3 in cheekpieces, 2/2 16-30 days after his last run
  • 2 from 2 this year so far and he's 1/1 here at Ayr

On top of all that, trainer George Bewley is 22 from 111 (19.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+36.5% ROI) in handicap chases since 2009, including...

  • males : 22/105 (21%) for 46.5pts (+44.3%)
  • at Class 4 : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.4pts (+32.9%)
  • at 6-25 dslr : 14/57 (24.6%) for 40.2pts (+70.6%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 12/43 (27.9%) for 46.3pts (+107.7%)
  • 9 yr olds are 7/27 (25.9%) for 23.4pts (+86.6%)
  • on Soft ground : 6/27 (22.2%) for 12.9pts (+47.9%)
  • LTO winners are 6/20 (30%) for 4.08pts (+20.4%)
  • and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+18.6%)

AND...in addition to the above...Since 2012 in handicap chases, males aged 7 to 9 yrs old rated 95 to 125 and priced at 10/1 and shorter, 4 to 25 days after winning a novice chase last time out are 56/201 (27.9% SR)for 77.6pts (+38.6% ROI), from which...

  • on soft ground : 16/56 (28.6%) for 19.1pts (+34.2%)
  • over trips of 2m-2m1f : 15/40 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+42%)
  • and on soft ground over trips of 2m-2m1f : 5/10 (50%) for 9.29pts (+92.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 and SkyBet at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

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