Stat of the Day, 13th September 2016

Monday's Result :

4.15 Kempton : Satish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, every chance 2f out, ridden chasing leader over 1f out until final 100 yards, went 2nd again post)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Manton Grange at 4/1 non-BOG (until midnight)

Why?

George Baker's horses seem to be in decent nick at present and he won this race last year with Aqua Ardens, it won't be another 14/1 winner this year, but both George and I hope he can repeat the feat today.

Manton Grange lost nothing in defeat last time out almost 7 weeks ago, finishing within three quarters of a length of an odds on William Haggas trained winner (William's odds-on maiden win 64% of their races anyway!), despite our runner coming off a break of some 313 days.

Our 3 yr old, who gets a useful weight for age allowance here, should strip fitter for having had a run and will look to improve his yard's already decent record at this track.

George Baker's runners here at Chepstow are 15/80 (18.75% SR) for 87.8pts (+109.8% ROI) over the last 6 seasons (including this one!) and with today's race in mind, those 80 runners are...

  • 9/57 (15.8%) for 83.9pts (+147.2%) in handicaps
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 91.8pts (+195.2%) from his male runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 80.1pts (+216.5%) over trips of 7f to 1m
  • and 5/19 (26.3%) for 9.13pts (+48.1%) from 3 yr olds

George Baker / male handicappers / 7f to 1m / Chepstow / 2011-16 = 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 68.9pts (+574.2% ROI)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Manton Grange at 4/1 BOG, which is non-BOG with Ladbrokes, who go BOG at midnight. I think the price will shorten, so I'm happy to risk the non-BOG, but if you want the insurance, 7/2 BOG was on offer in a couple of places at 5.45pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Chepstow.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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