Stat of the Day, 13th October 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th October 2012

And so, after an incredible run of results, Chris takes a breather. No pina coladas by the pool on some far off tropical island for him, but at least a weekend away from the keyboard, as 'new dad' Matt returns from his paternity for a stint in the SotD chair.

I return on an absolutely terrific day's racing. Not an easy day's racing, but hugely competitive and compelling stuff. So, if we're going to be dealing with competitive stuff, why not have a stab at the most competitive of all the races, the Cesarewitch?! That's the...

3.35 Newmarket

Just the 35 of them go to post for this two and a quarter mile flat handicap, one of the hardest of the season for backers. In what is ostensibly such an obtuse puzzle, there is one horse which has a bulletproof stats profile. Of course, paper and turf are different barometers of performance, and the latter is where his mettle will be tested this afternoon.

Countrywide Flame is favourite in many books for the race, and deservedly so. This fellow, who won the Triumph Hurdle as a 33/1 shot (when tipped here at geegeez by yours truly), has an incredible placed strike rate of ten from eleven since joining John Quinn.

His career stats are impressive whichever way you look at them, and here's a quick resume:

141321 on good to soft since stepped up from five furlong (five furlongs?! This is a two and a quarter mile race! He actually ran in races won by Ballista and Mayson on first two career starts!)
134112123121 since joining John Quinn (including FOUR Grade 1 hurdles)
1 in a field of 16+ (Triumph Hurdle)

In terms of the Cesarewitch trends, a low draw has traditionally been an advantage - Countrywide Flame is drawn seven of 35; ten of the last fourteen winners finished top four last time out - our boy was a winner; ten of fourteen have carried 8-11 or less - CF has 8-05 to lug here; 11 of 14 were rated 95 or less - CF is 88; and, half of the last fourteen winners had run between sixteen and thirty days prior to rocking up here: Countrywide Flame last ran 29 days ago.

And, for good measure, he's one of just a handful who like to race on or very close to the pace, a job which is perfectly set up from trap seven.

In other words, if this race was run on paper, the others may as well not bother showing up! Alas, they insist on running it on the grass, so we'll have to 'go through the motions' of watching them race... 😉

Obviously, it's a 35 runner handicap, so anything can happen, but there are a lot of positives to merit nominating the favourite in the race, especially given that a) he's 8/1, b) that's best odds guaranteed (though I can't really see him drifting), and c) a number of bookies are paying five places. I'll be wagering each way BOG with a five places bookie, and hoping for a robust run for the fish and chip money, but you can and should always…

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.35 Newmarket.

16 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 13th October 2012

  1. Ian L

    Hi Matt I got up early and thought I would check the site, and found you had posted just before 4.00 am, the new Dad routine perhaps? Anyway, when I saw Cesarewitch my heart sunk, regarding it as a “bookmaker’s benevolent fund” but as ever the stats analysis was superb and I’m on at 8/1 BOG so good luck to you and all SotD readers! Ian L

  2. sloanie

    Hi Matt. What a tough race for Sotd but what stats to back it up. Really like the Sotd feature so cant wait to see how countrywide flame goes. Hope you can stay awake for the race!

  3. Patrick

    Great call but can’t believe Fallon set off at 66/1. What a jockey….. A couple of other horses you picked out earlier in the season made it a good day. Fulbright was a great start to the day

  4. Johnny5

    Matt

    SO close – great run from your stat !!

    Beaten by a market rag ( but class horse) ..and some might say flame was hampered

    Thought you were loopy going for that race – but obviously a great stat race … Well done!

    If only the stat that No horse has ever won this race twice had Happened today !!!…

    Cheers Matt – welcome back

    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      It was a great race, and Countrywide Flame is a great horse. He just bumped into an inspired Fallon on a ‘mad for it’ Aaim To Prosper.

      Expect Tony Stafford to be writing about this tomorrow – I suspect he’s there with Brian Meehan tonight!

      Matt

      1. Ian L

        Matt I think you and Johnny5 have said it all above really, but to my eye Countrywide was delayed getting out and making his run and another 50yards could have made the difference. Fantastic ride by Fallon – Brilliant (and brave) selection by Bisgno! Thanks

    1. Ian L

      Hi Chris – obviously a busman’s holiday for you today, but it gives me the chance to say how much I have appreciated your recent profitable work on SotD. I also thought your post bet analysis of the value in Burj Alzain was spot on and worth the time taken. I watched the race on computer courtesy of Bet 365 and when the commentary cut off they called our horse third (so I was a bit miffed later to find the bet listed as a loser) I think I had 16s about a 9/2 favourite which is phenominal value regardless. Cheers

  5. Maxine

    Hi Matt. I was going to do Ofevere last week but went ew on Solemia instead after I read upu post. So exciting and what a result! Shame Countrywide Flame didn’t make it today but I still made a profit. Thanks so much for your tips.

  6. Bob Smith (@RobertS00994664)

    Hi Matt – great result on your first day back in the chair. Can vaguely remember the 4.00 a.m. mornings – certainly would not have been inspired to make such a well judged selection (lol).

    Many Thanks

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