Stat of the Day, 13th May 2017

Friday's Result :

7.40 Ripon : Swift Emperor @ 11/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 Held up towards rear, headway over 2f out, ridden inside final furlong, no extra towards finish.

Friday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Warwick...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brahms de Clermont3/1 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old gelding who has made a flying start to his career finishing 116421 in his 6 starts so far, the latest run being a win at Exeter four days ago.

Trainer Paul Nicholls' runners are 23/81 (28.4% SR) over the last 30 days and 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) over the past week, so they're clearly in good nick, whilst here at Warwick, they are 15/54 (27.8% SR) since 2011.

And Mr Nicholls' record with handicap debutants  stands at 28 wins from 117 (23.9% SR) for 66.8pts (+55.6% ROI) since 2014, including...

  • hurdlers at 24/102 (23.5%) for 70.2pts (+69.5%)
  • those ridden by today's jockey Sam Twiston-Davies are 13/55 (23.6%) for 34.1pts (+61.9%)
  • Class 3 runners are 15/47 (31.9%) for 32pts (+62.6%)
  • and LTO winners are 10/31 (32.3%) for 41pts (+136.7%)

And speaking of Sam Twiston-Davies, he's also in good form, with a 5/22 (22.7% SR) record over the fortnight, including 3 winners from 11 (27.3% SR) in the last 7 days and since 2013, he has 21 winners from 112 (18.75% SR) here at Warwick, of which those trained by Paul Nicholls are 8 from 19 (42.1% SR) for 11pts (+57.9% ROI) profit.

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Brahms de Clermont3/1 BOG which was widely available at 8.40pm on Friday, but if you can grab the 10/3 BOG offered by Paddy Power, please do do! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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