Stat of the Day, 13th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2015

Well, Micky Hammond got his Hexham winner again on Thursday, but unfortunately for us it was Endless Credit in the opener.

Our 4/1 bet on Auldthunder, however, went unrewarded despite beating the 3/1 SP comfortably again. It was a workmanlike rather than spectacular effort and but for slowing at the finish, he'd have finished third, but lost that on the line.

I'm not convinced he got 3m 1f on ground that looked stickier than good to the naked eye and had to be driven from a good way out. That said he plugged on and was involved in a decent battle for the minor honours, as the eventual winner had bolted off and made all.

The beauty of a daily service, is that although I have no hiding places, I do get an almost instant shot at redemption and my quest for a winner now takes me to the...

4.15 Fakenham:

And Ali Stronge's 11/2 BOG priced, consistent hurdler Cappielow Park.

Ali Stronge might not be a familiar name to all of you, but she's been on my radar for a while now. She's a dual-code trainer based in Lambourn and after having three horses run for her in 2012 has begun to kick on since the start of 2013 and she's making a bit of name for herself as a successful NH handicap trainer.

She might not stay under the radar if sites like Geegeez start to highlight her, but what can you do? Anyway in a little over two years, she has already had 14 handicap winners from just 94 runners, a decent strike rate of 14.9% that has produced level stakes profits of 18.6pts at an ROI of 19.8% to date.

Her handicap hurdlers are 1054 (18.5% SR) for 40.5pts (+75% ROI), with the 2/1 to 12/1 price band providing most success with 10 winners from 40 (25% SR) and profits of 54.5pts (+136.3% ROI).

Ali has also has success here at Fakenham already with 5 of her 10 runners here returning as winners and bringing home 35.16pts profit in the process, from which her hurdlers are 4/8 (50% SR) for 33.78pts (+422.3% ROI) and her handicap hurdlers are 3/5 (60% SR) for 30.08pts (+601.6% ROI).

Adam Wedge is in the saddle today and he's already managed to bag 6 winners from just 14 rides on Ali's horses with that 42.9% strike rate producing 53.2pts profit at an ROI of 379.9% ROI. Over hurdles, the partnership is 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 54.2pts (+416.8% ROI) and in handicap hurdles the figures are 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 52.8pts (+480.1% SR).

All those rides were at prices of 12/1 or shorter and they are 3 from 4 here at Fakenham together.

I appreciate and accept that the above sets of data aren't the biggest sample sizes I've ever used, but I've told you about all of the trainer's runners. I've not cherrypicked years or types of races/tracks etc. It's just that she's fairly new!

But if you want something a little more substantial to go off, let's switch attention to the horse, Cappielow Park, who was last seen 16 days ago winning a novice handicap by two lengths over today's trip on heavy ground at Wincanton, which will hopefully follow the precedent that...

...since 2008, male handicap hurdlers who won a novice hurdle last time out 16 to 25 ago followed up with another win on 77 of 369 (20.9% SR) occasions, recording level stakes profits of 137.6pts (+37.3% ROI).

Those sent off in the 6/4 to 9/1 range are 69/267 (25.8% SR) for 135.9pts (+50.9% ROI) with those whop won by a head to 4 lengths last time going on to win 42 of 150 (28% SR) for 100.1pts (+66.7% ROI) profit next time around.

Cappielow Park has been in decent consistent form over hurdles in the last twelve months with a run of results reading 41122U1 and in the same time, he has been turned out on the level on four occasions, making the frame in two of those races. He has won once and been the runner-up once from three Adam Wedge rides and today will be just his third attempt at Class 3 racing, having a win and a runner-up finish to his name already.

This is a a tougher task than his last outing and he's up 4lbs for that win, but the ground conditions are much better here than they were for his last run, so perhaps his stamina might not be over stretched by the extra weight. He has won on good ground in the past and all his best form is in and around this type of trip, so an 11/2 BOG bet on Cappielow Park looks a decent option to me here. I'm on with Bet365, but at least three other firms are offering the same price, so why not...

...click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Fakenham

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18 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 13th March 2015

  1. catalta

    Hi Chris,

    Interesting stat. for the trainer of your selection:
    Wearing headgear other than cheek-pieces….19 runs, 1 win.
    Coupled with not running in chases last time out
    and Adam Wedge riding, this looks an excellent bet.
    My money’s on at 5/1 BOG

    Chris A

  2. rhur

    Now you know it did not run as I said he had injured his foot, you should check out the BHA site you get all the information you need ie non runners and why,going,where stalls placed ect ect I don’t know how any of you don’t check out before you bet
    The more info the more your do better in picking winner

    As I pointed out with some of the stats that are given I would not take any notice of them unless they are at least 30 runs

    Also ask why not use Archie which will help on the stats

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I think you’re being a bit presumptuous in suggesting people don’t research their bets properly and the tone of your post comes across as quite condescending/ patronising.

      I’m pretty confident that I know what I’m doing and my record hers on SotD and other places speaks for itself.

      We only ever attract comments of your kind when going through a difficult run, we never hear from you when things are going well.

      Regards,
      Chris

    2. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Reggie

      You’ve been a long time on/off subscriber of ours. Please allow me to clarify something for you:

      – Chris has put over 200 points profit on the board during the course of a number of years. He is, without doubt, one of the best, most clear-headed stat-focused, consistently profitable public tipsters in the country.

      And… he’s having a bad run. So what?

      We’ve already seen from your few months with us that you’ve subscribed and unsubscribed more than a dozen times. What I’m driving at is that if/when you share Chris’s consistency and profitability long-term, then maybe you’ll start to be moderately placed to cast judgement on our man.

      In the meantime, I’ll politely… actually, no I’ll categorically… recommend you keep your thoughts to yourself. That extends to the rudeness you’ve spilt forth towards forum users as well.

      Opinions are fine. Hollow after-timing from someone with no track record and therefore no right are unwelcome and untolerated.

      I’m slightly embarrassed to write this in public, rather than on a private email to you. But you’ve somewhat forced my hand with your own self-congratulatory efforts in the face of… well, zero track record. I’m afraid your time with geegeez is up, Mr S. Please go elsewhere now. Thank you.

      Matt

  3. Johnners77

    Sorry, but I feel I have to write in support of Chris, Matt and the whole Geegeez team. I have followed them since the ‘early days’ and have seen the site and service grow from its infancy to one of the best (if not THE best) online racing forums that I know. SOTD has provided a regular source of much needed income and the team don’t need to justify what they do – their record speaks for itself. Well done Geegeez and keep up the fantastic work for all your grateful followers! Onwards and ever upwards…..
    Mark J (Lifetime Gold member)

  4. Fatboyjim

    I’m going to back up what Johnners has said, I have also been here since the early days and it would never cross my mind to leave. The service is fantastic, the race cards are brilliant with another couple of innovations due soon, and don’t get me started on how good Stat of the Day and Double Dutch are.

    With those two services coupled with the ‘fifteen’ qualifiers on the Shortlist you have around 200 points per year profit. Just fantastic, my only worry is that some day they decide to pack it in because of shortsighted idiots such as the poster above.

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Jim,

      I’m here until Matt says otherwise!
      I’m very thick-skinned and only occasionally do I get a little prickly when pushed.

      I’m very open to constructive criticism, as it happens, I just didn’t think that was what we were being offered.

      Chris

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      In all honesty, I have very little to do with the development side of the business, but those reports are very much still at the forefront of what’s coming next.
      I know they appeared briefly a few weeks back, but there were some techy (don’t ask me!) issues to be resolved.

      I’m sure Matt will explain further upon his return from Cheltenham duties!

    2. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Jim

      Next week. They’re actually working fine in test, but I didn’t want to risk putting them live and breaking something else in Cheltenham week.

      Thanks a lot for your patience – they’ve thrown up some really interesting suggestions this week (and I’m sure they’ll continue to do that when live!)

      Appreciate your support of Team Geegeez, and I’m frustrated that a ‘bad egg’ has slipped through the net. We try very hard not to allow that to happen.

      Have a great weekend,
      Matt

  5. Fatboyjim

    Your post was quite telling in that he has subscribed and unsubscribed a few times. The SotD has a 2/7 strike rate, would be great if we actually got two winners every seven selections, but life doesn’t work like that.

    What I am trying to say is like anything successful it is a long term thing, don’t get carried away when we have six straight winners and don’t chuck the towel in during a run like this one.

    We know it is hugely profitable in the long term just stick with it.

  6. MColebrook

    Would have chimed in earlier had I seen the elegant, thoughtful and insightful critique posted before. There was another example of being intellectually challenged on a thread relating to Cheltenham as well. Keep up the fantastic work and those who know what they’re about will stay – glad to see the back of the tyre kickers as it preserves the prices for the rest of us 😉 Best site on the ‘net by far. Martyn. Lifetime Subscriber.

  7. Blokeshead

    Another (belated – sorry, only saw this thread tonight) line or three of support from another “lifer”.

    Chris, Matt, you do a grand job and I ‘m rather relieved to learn I ‘m not the only one with a fear of you upping and awaying because you eventually get fed up with the odd idiot having a go at you. I have no idea how many members you have but would dare to guess the vast majority of them are a silent but happy bunch.

    It’s easy to moan about anyone having a losing run of an entire week. But I’ll bet any such moaner goes very quiet during runs such as the recent 6-winners-on-the-trot period. If you can’t take the rough with the smooth, you really shouldn’t be gambling. On the plus side though, someone has to keep the bookies in business. And that someone probably isn’t most Geegeez subscribers – he’s more lkely to be the one flitting from service to service, changing strategy every time a horse loses, and so on. Cancelling his Geegeez sub every time Chris picks a loser most certainly falls into that category.

    Keep up the good work, chaps! 🙂

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