Stat of the Day, 13th March 2015
Well, Micky Hammond got his Hexham winner again on Thursday, but unfortunately for us it was Endless Credit in the opener.
Our 4/1 bet on Auldthunder, however, went unrewarded despite beating the 3/1 SP comfortably again. It was a workmanlike rather than spectacular effort and but for slowing at the finish, he'd have finished third, but lost that on the line.
I'm not convinced he got 3m 1f on ground that looked stickier than good to the naked eye and had to be driven from a good way out. That said he plugged on and was involved in a decent battle for the minor honours, as the eventual winner had bolted off and made all.
The beauty of a daily service, is that although I have no hiding places, I do get an almost instant shot at redemption and my quest for a winner now takes me to the...
And Ali Stronge's 11/2 BOG priced, consistent hurdler Cappielow Park.
Ali Stronge might not be a familiar name to all of you, but she's been on my radar for a while now. She's a dual-code trainer based in Lambourn and after having three horses run for her in 2012 has begun to kick on since the start of 2013 and she's making a bit of name for herself as a successful NH handicap trainer.
She might not stay under the radar if sites like Geegeez start to highlight her, but what can you do? Anyway in a little over two years, she has already had 14 handicap winners from just 94 runners, a decent strike rate of 14.9% that has produced level stakes profits of 18.6pts at an ROI of 19.8% to date.
Her handicap hurdlers are 1054 (18.5% SR) for 40.5pts (+75% ROI), with the 2/1 to 12/1 price band providing most success with 10 winners from 40 (25% SR) and profits of 54.5pts (+136.3% ROI).
Ali has also has success here at Fakenham already with 5 of her 10 runners here returning as winners and bringing home 35.16pts profit in the process, from which her hurdlers are 4/8 (50% SR) for 33.78pts (+422.3% ROI) and her handicap hurdlers are 3/5 (60% SR) for 30.08pts (+601.6% ROI).
Adam Wedge is in the saddle today and he's already managed to bag 6 winners from just 14 rides on Ali's horses with that 42.9% strike rate producing 53.2pts profit at an ROI of 379.9% ROI. Over hurdles, the partnership is 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 54.2pts (+416.8% ROI) and in handicap hurdles the figures are 5/11 (45.5% SR) for 52.8pts (+480.1% SR).
All those rides were at prices of 12/1 or shorter and they are 3 from 4 here at Fakenham together.
I appreciate and accept that the above sets of data aren't the biggest sample sizes I've ever used, but I've told you about all of the trainer's runners. I've not cherrypicked years or types of races/tracks etc. It's just that she's fairly new!
But if you want something a little more substantial to go off, let's switch attention to the horse, Cappielow Park, who was last seen 16 days ago winning a novice handicap by two lengths over today's trip on heavy ground at Wincanton, which will hopefully follow the precedent that...
...since 2008, male handicap hurdlers who won a novice hurdle last time out 16 to 25 ago followed up with another win on 77 of 369 (20.9% SR) occasions, recording level stakes profits of 137.6pts (+37.3% ROI).
Those sent off in the 6/4 to 9/1 range are 69/267 (25.8% SR) for 135.9pts (+50.9% ROI) with those whop won by a head to 4 lengths last time going on to win 42 of 150 (28% SR) for 100.1pts (+66.7% ROI) profit next time around.
Cappielow Park has been in decent consistent form over hurdles in the last twelve months with a run of results reading 41122U1 and in the same time, he has been turned out on the level on four occasions, making the frame in two of those races. He has won once and been the runner-up once from three Adam Wedge rides and today will be just his third attempt at Class 3 racing, having a win and a runner-up finish to his name already.
This is a a tougher task than his last outing and he's up 4lbs for that win, but the ground conditions are much better here than they were for his last run, so perhaps his stamina might not be over stretched by the extra weight. He has won on good ground in the past and all his best form is in and around this type of trip, so an 11/2 BOG bet on Cappielow Park looks a decent option to me here. I'm on with Bet365, but at least three other firms are offering the same price, so why not...
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