Stat of the Day, 13th July 2016

Tuesday's Result :

8.30 Worcester : Samtu @ 4/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 (Tracked leaders, 2nd before 3rd, led 5th, soon headed, ridden and hung left before 3 out, weakened next)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wotabreeze at 9/2 BOG

Why?

A very consistent sort, finishing 2123 since going handicapping, but beaten off today's mark of 69 on his last two runs over 1m2f on quick ground. Each time, he had ran well but lacked a final burst to get home, staying on a little one-paced, suggesting the step up in trip today could be the answer.

He is still on that mark of 69, but the booking of a 5lb claimer might also prove beneficial, as he seeks to become another John Quinn Catterick winner to go with the other 13 from 86 attempts (15.1% SR) that have produced level stakes profits of 21pts (+24.4% RO) on the Flat here since the start of the 2013 season.

And from those 86 runners...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 11/1 are 11/60 (18.3%) for 17.4pts (+28.9%)
  • handicappers are 8/51 (15.7%) for 28.3pts (+55.5%)
  • in fields of 5-9 runners : 10/50 (20%) for 40.3pts (+80.6%)
  • those rated (OR) 65-85 are 10/40 (25%) for 22.4pts (+55.9%)
  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 7/29 (24.1%) for 26.3pts (+90.8%)
  • over the 1.5 mile trip : 4/21 (19.1%) for 15.1pts (+71.7%)
  • and 3 yr olds are 3/17 (17.7%) for 16.2pts (+95.3%)

Now, I appreciate that some of those sample sizes are a little small, so let's look at some more data that backs up the selection today and moving away from trainer/track stats, let's refer back to Wotabreeze's recent run of form, which leads us to the fact that...

...on the Flat in the UK during the months of April to September since 2012, 3 to 5 yr olds racing over trips of 7f to 1m4f off the back of three consecutive top 3 finishes, but were beaten last time out 6-30 days ago, got back to winning ways on 329 of 1574 (20.9% SR) occasions, generating profits of 353.6pts at an ROI of 22.5%.

And of those 1574 runners...

  • 3 yr olds are 243/1147 (21.2%) for 296.8pts (+25.9%)
  • those finishing 3rd LTO are 139/715 (19.4%) for 211.9pts (+29.6%)
  • those racing on good to firm are 118/564 (20.9%) for 92.2pts (+16.3%)
  • Class 5 runners are 129/459 (28.1%) for 120pts (+26.1%)
  • and those racing over 1m3.5f/1m4f are 56/305 (18.4%) for 87.8pts (+28.8%)

...so, the call is a 1pt win bet on Wotabreeze at 9/2 BOG with Betfair's Sportsbook, who were the market leaders at 6.05pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

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