Stat of the Day, 13th July 2013
Taste The Wine was headed and subsequently beaten with one furlong left of the twelve to run yesterday. Once headed, he had little fight in him and stayed one paced to the end, finishing in third place and beaten by just over 4 lengths. His SP was 5/2 after we'd taken 3/1 in a race his trainer was keen to win. Despite training three of the six runners, he was also disappointed with a return of 2nd, 3rd and 5th.
Wiltshire is our port of call this evening for a four-runner, Class 5 handicap on Good to Firm ground. Tonight's trip is a mile and a half for the small field contesting the...
Philip Hobbs is very good at taking horses from other yards and getting them to fire on their yard debut. In recent years he has a record of ten winners from thirty-two with horses having their first run for him, having previously turned out for one or more other trainer in the past.
This excellent 31.25% strike rate has translated itself into £341.10 profits to a £10 level stake at betfair SP, a return of 106.6% over stakes.
Of those 32 runners, 22 of them had run ten times or less in their career before moving to Philip's yard and Mr Hobbs has managed to get eight of those twenty-two to win first time out, increasing that already impressive 31.25% strike rate up to 36.4%. This rise is strike rate has been replicated in the profits/returns, with the eight winners producing 27.7pts profit, an ROI of 126%.
Philip has just the one runner today, Dumbarton and he ticks all those boxes for us. Ten starts to date (4 for Sir Michael Stoute and 6 for Gordon Elliott), he makes his debut for his new yard today, after moved a couple of months ago.
The yard have spent the last eight weeks or so getting him ready to run, as he's now been off the track for some 253 days and whilst this can be a problem for some horses, he has actually won in the past after a break of 328 days!
If he's right today, he could upset the apple cart a little as I expect him to be the outsider of four, yet historically, backing the outsider of four in a handicap priced in the 4/1 to 8/1 area (where I expect us to be today!) gives a 15% strike rate and a profit of 20.2% over stakes.
And if he's ready, he shouldn't be found wanting for either speed (has won over a mile on the flat), nor for stamina (won a 2 mile hurdle as recently as last October) and he looks fairly treated on a mark of 71, having run off 76 to 84 in the past. His cause will also be helped by jockey William Twiston-Davies' 5lb claim this evening.
This is a little more speculative than usual and we're expecting this one not to be fancied, but if things fall his way, the 5/1 BOG on offer from bet365 could look very big indeed, but for your preferred bookie...