Stat of the Day, 13th August 2016

Friday's Result :

8.15 Newmarket : Dutch Law @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in 5th, headway tracking leaders 5f out, went 2nd 3f out, ridden and no impression over 1f out, lost 2nd towards finish, beaten by 1.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll On Rory at 7/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding is in cracking form of late, finishing 112 in his last three outings, the latest being a 1.5 length defeat 23 days ago.

In terms of what he faces today, he seems well suited, as he has 3 wins from 10 on the Flat (2/6 in handicaps), from which he has achieved the following...

  • 2 wins and 1 place from 6 as a 3yr old (all hcps)
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 6 on good to firm (1w, 1pl /3 hcps)
  • 3 wins from 5 after 15-30 days rest (2/3 in hcps)
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 runs in a visor (both hcps)
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 runs with today's jockey (both hcps)
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 runs at Class 4 (both hcps)

and he was considered good enough to run in a Listed race last season, where he wasn't disgraced at all.

On top of that, horses with a 112 profile from their last three runs are 47/277 (17% SR) for 25.2pts (+9.1% ROI) on the Flat since the start of the 2012 season, including the following relevant data from today's contest...

  • beaten by a neck to 5 lengths LTO : 42/223 (18.8%) for 60.1pts (+27%)
  • in fields of 7 to 15 runners : 41/197 (20.8%) for 78.3pts (+39.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 38/195 (19.5%) for 67.7pts (+34.7%)
  • over trips of 6f to 1m : 25/138 (18.1%) for 37.5pts (+27.2%)
  • on good to firm ground : 16/97 (16.5%) for 13.8pts (+38.5%)
  • 21-30 days since last run : 14/62 (22.6%) for 63.2pts (+102%)
  • here on the July course at Newmarket : 7/22 (31.8%) for 12.25pts (+55.7%)

...leading to... a 1pt win bet on Roll On Rory at 7/1 BOG with Coral, who were clear market leaders at 6.30pm. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newmarket.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

11 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 13th August 2016

  1. Everyone calls me Paul

    Cheers Chris. Closed my Coral online account cos the tossers would only let me have a penny on anything horse related. Was going out Friday night so popped in-store to see if they’d give me a price…no chance (“which ante-post race is it?”). Took half a point at 6s this morning, so nice to get back in and see the result.
    Ta, Paul

      1. neilmck

        Of course you can’t speculate on what the price might be later, I’m just a bit surprised that you’re recording at a price which was only available with one bookmaker and for a very short period of time.

          1. Chris Worrall Post author

            It was available at 7/1, I took 7/1 and told all subscribers it was 7/1 at Coral.
            Next best was 6/1 in three places.

            I’m not going to tell you to take 6/1 when 7’s are available.
            As soon as we go live on Geegeez, it goes out on our Facebook and Twitter feed. If people are concerned at not getting the best price, they need to follow us on social media. I even post a message to this effect every day.

          2. Matt Bisogno Post author

            Hi Neil

            I also feel your question is a fair one. And I feel Chris’ reply is also fair.

            Pricewise, Hugh Taylor, and/or any other value tipster will nominate at a price available only in one place frequently. Moreover, those prices – especially on Hugh’s picks – evaporate in seconds, let alone half an hour. Hugh records his profit to the prices he quotes, which last a couple of minutes tops, generally.

            I understand you’ll be frustrated if you didn’t get the price but it really is perfectly reasonable for us to record the price which was quoted – and available for many.

            Best Regards,
            Matt

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