Stat of the Day, 13th August 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2014

Ellaal once again finished in the first three home, for the eleventh time in 20 races over the last nine months, but he wasn't good enough to trouble the leading pair, who pulled a good 4.5 lengths clear of him in the closing stages.

Ellaal had led to the 2 pole, but had no extra once headed with over a furlong left to run. One thing I did get right was the fact that 5/2 BOG might offer a small amount of value come race time and so that proved as he was sent off a a 2/1 jt fav.

It's a very wet and windy Wednesday here in God's own county (Lancashire), but hopefully conditions will be better for us in the...

5.10 Beverley:

I'm a little under the weather myself today and today's selection is also towards the shorter end of the market, so I'll keep it brief so we can all get on the advised odds.

I've backed Mark Johnston's Got To Dream at 5/2 BOG with Skybet on this horse's debut for the yard after six starts in maidens in Ireland for Kevin Prendergast, making the frame in three of those races, including a runner-up finish last time out at Dundalk over today's trip.

This three year old filly also completed 10.5f at Tipperary in June, so today's mile and a a half is well within her capabilities and she has shown some aptitude for all ground conditions and has been placed on soft ground.

Unexposed newcomers to Mark Johnston's yard tend to go well first time out. Since the start of 2009, mark has given a yard debut to 74 horses who had already had 1 to 6 previous runs ie they have raced, but aren't over-raced. 24 of the 74 (32.4% SR) won at the first time of asking, generating 66.4pts profit at an ROI of 89.7%. From this basic stat, we can derive the following information...

Three year olds: 22/63 (34.9% SR) for 62.1pts (+98.6% ROI) profit.
Runners priced at 8/1 or shorter: 24/57 (42.1% SR) for 83.4pts (+146.3% ROI) profit.
3 yr olds at odds of 8/1 or shorter: 22/51 (43.1% SR) for 74.1pts (+145.4% ROI) profit.

Got To Dream is a 3yr old running in an open age handicap and as such receives an 11lb weight for age allowance in a race of 10f. This is no secret, but certain trainers are more adept at exploiting this angle than others and Mark Johnston is one of the best.

Since the start of the 2011 season, Mark has run 175 three year olds in open age handicaps of 1m4f to 2m in distance, where the allowances are the greatest. 43 of the 175 (24.6% SR) have been winners and the 42.9pts profit from those runners represents a 24.5% return above stakes invested, whilst those sent off at 8/1 or shorter have won 39 of 128 (29.8% SR) efforts for 33pts (+25.8% ROI) profit.

So, from the above sets of data, we can see that Mark carefully chooses where to place his new horses for a decent debut run and that he's a master of using the weight for age allowance to his/our advantage. The horse should be fine with trip and conditions and showed some promise in Ireland prior to relocation.

The only blot on the horizon for me today, is the withdrawal of one of the main rivals, Chant. This obviously helps our chances, but had reduced the price available to us here and the current best price of our 1pt win bet on Got To Dream is the 5/2 BOG on offer at SkyBet, whilst 9/4 BOG seems to be norm elsewhere. here for the latest betting on the 5.10 Beverley

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.


Here is today's racecard.

10 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 13th August 2014

  1. Chris Worrall Post author

    I’m not actually ill, as such. I’ve got a bit of an ongoing condition that flares up and I had a rough night. I’m not convinced sitting in a wet and windy football stadium last night helped much, though!

  2. homeyc

    Sorry Chris your geography is under the weather also – Beverley (my local racecourse) is located in Yorkshire which is officially Gods Own Country. Ladies Day at Beverley today

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Hi Chris,
      Nothing wrong with my geography, mate. I know Beverley is in Yorkshire.
      I said it was wet and windy here in Lancashire and that I hoped it was better in Beverley.

      As for the better county, we’ll have to agree to disagree. 😀


  3. Paul George

    Hi there,

    Just enjoying my first month on here – still finding my way around – so much to take in. I know this isn’t the right place to put this, but maybe you could bump it to the right place for me??

    Just wondered about thoughts on the following:

    1) When I discard horses from the Card section (using the cross) and then click across to the ‘Instant Expert’ I’d like them still to be ‘greyed out’ so I can focus on the horses I want to look at.

    2) A ‘win or place’ button would be good as well as the singular ‘win’ and ‘place’ tabs.

    3) In terms of finding the best prices, I (and probably most people) don’t have accounts with all the bookmakers. It would be great if I could somehow filter out the ones I don’t use and only get the prices from the ones I do. So, when I click bet I know I’ll be getting the given price from a bookmaker I use.

    I’m sorry if these ideas have been expressed elsewhere, but I’m new – forgive me!


    1. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Hi Paul

      Thanks for your comments, and welcome to Geegeez! Answers as follows:

      1. That’s an interesting idea, and we’ll look into it. As with all ideas it depends on the development complexity but, if not too tricky, we’ll try to accommodate.
      2. I’m not sure to what this relates. Can you be more specific, please?
      3. We did consider this but ultimately decided against it. The main reason is that we want to encourage value betting. Taking 4/1 when 5/1 is available doesn’t make sense, even if it does mean opening a new account. However, if you’re happy to do that, you can of course scan across the row with your horse’s prices.

      Do come back to me on 2. above and I’ll see what my developer says on 1. above.


  4. hollieollo

    Nice winner for SoTD. Strangely, Bet Victor didn`t apply any rule 4 deduction to my bet?
    Anyway, well done for that tip. My Hannon/Hughes success came unstuck today with the overwhelming favourite coming second. Currently, I am having more seconds than Oliver Twist, always beaten by an unknown. Maybe that is what you get with lower class races?

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      You did well to avoid a Rule 4 deduction.
      I was subject to a 15p charge, meaning that I’ll be declaring a winner at 17/8 in my next weekly update.


  5. Doshtosh

    Well done Chris, and Got To Dream, too, she looks tasty! It was a shame about the n/rs as I don’t think that she was to be beaten, today. One lot stopped me 15% the other 20% both bets placed around the same time, but I don’t say anything as I’m glad there’s still a few who will lay an early price with the BOG concession…..there are quite a few who don’t. too!

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.