Stat of the Day, 13th April 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

4.30 Taunton : Dicosimo @ 9/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Led until 7th, lost 2nd before 3 out, soon weakened)

And now to Friday's...

2.50 Aintree :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG

A 10-runner, Grade 1,  3m1f novice chase (5yo+) on good to soft ground worth £56130 to the winner...

Why?

This five year old gelding is making only his fourth start today and finishing 112 in his previous three outings, all over fences at 2.5 miles on soft ground. He was beaten by seven lengths last out, when a runner-up at the Cheltenham Festival 29 days ago. He looked a little one paced last time, so a step up in trip allied to an easing of the ground should help get him back to winning ways and continue his yard's excellent start to this year's National meeting.

That excellent start was 3 winners and 2 placers from 7 runners on Day 1 and trainer Nicky Henderson will be keen to add to a tally here at Aintree of 38 winners from 199 (19.1% SR) producing 80.9pts (+40.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2012, with Festival runners winning 23 of 144 (16%) for 51.7pts (+35.9%). I should add that this data doesn't include the results from Day 1 : Thursday.

More generally, since the start of 2010, horses running 11-60 days after a top 3 finish at the Cheltenham Festival last time out are 133/520 (25.6% SR) for 162.6pts (+31.3% ROI), from which...

  • those running in April are 117/473 (24.7%) for 172.3pts (+36.4%)
  • those last seen 16-45 days earlier are 107/440 (24.3%) for 167.6pts (+38.1%)
  • Grade 1 runers are 78/290 (26.9%) for 34.2pts (+11.8%)
  • here at Aintree : 58/236 (24.6%) for 173.2pts (+73.4%)
  • those beaten by more than 4 lengths LTO are 32/166 (19.3%) for 89.8pts (+54.1%)
  • at trips of 2m6f to 3m4.5f : 38/153 (24.8%) for 47.5pts (+31.1%)
  • on Good to Soft ground : 26/127 (20.5%) for 20.6pts (+16.2%)
  • those stepping up in trip by 2 to 5 furlongs are 37/121 (30.6%) for 78.1pts (+64.5%)
  • and those trained by Mr Henderson are 22/59 (37.3%) for 12.5pts (+21.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Terrefort @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Boylesports, Paddy Power and Blacktype (although the latter are non-BOG) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Aintree

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

13 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 13th April 2018

        1. Chris Worrall Post author

          Indeed. I had an email yesterday suggesting that selecting a horse running on heavy ground was a terrible pick, despite it running at Class 3 having won on heavy in Listed company.

          These emails always come after the race, though 😉

          1. zumik83

            And to think that, personally, I stopped being one of those “some” people only after almost 3 months sais a great deal about your commitment you put into selecting a horse everyday. I simply bet the designated amount on your selection and wait the result. I never had a bad day those 3 months. I like to watch the races live and everytime I think about what a marvelous creature the horse is. If the one selected wins, I’m happy, if it does’t, there is always tomorrow but either way, it is still a marvelous creature … keep it up !

  1. oscarbriso

    It has been an unusually wet and long winter with a lot of heavy ground races and heavy ground usually makes races harder to predict. This time last year I was making healthy proffit but this year it is testing my bank at the moment so I hope we hit a couple of winners soon 🙂

    1. Blokeshead

      “Whenever I see a little negativity on these boards. You pull up a nice winner.”

      So true. I made a similar observation last month, when Chris had a dry run of about five days (which apparently, despite his history, still means it’s a crisis for some people). It’s getting to be such a trend that I shall consider upping stakes when the questions start coming in future. I probably won’t (the horse running today, after all, didn’t know the last few Chris had tipped had lost, and ran the same race anyway, so my reasoning is probably statistically unsound), as it could probably defined as “loss-chasing”, but I rather suspect I shall kick myself for it when the trend continues.

      Thanks Chris. Not for the first time of late, you saved my day.

  2. winderman

    It makes me smile.
    Why do some of these get rich quick geezers back horses.
    You’ll never hear me twist. Coz ive been around awhile.
    I know what you can do chris.
    Incidentally, I don’t back Stat of the day selections. I back Chris Worral’s selections.
    That’s no disrespect to the others that come in when needed.
    I just prefer Yours, Chris.
    Thanks for the winner.

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