Stat of the Day, 12th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2015

It was, I'm afraid, another case of picking a well-backed loser on Friday as Toofi failed to concede 11lbs to the eventual winner, finishing second and beaten by a length and a half.

Our 4/1 was eroded down to 5/2 favouritism by the off and after being held up for a run, Toofi was unable to overhaul the winner.

Saturday represents my last shot at glory for this week and my selection runs in the...

3.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a six furlong, Class 4, 3yo+ turf handicap for fillies and I'm going the the 3/1 BOG Mehronissa, trained by Ed Vaughan and to be ridden by Freddie Tylicki.

The trainer :

Ed Vaughan's record in 6f handicaps over the last six seasons (inc this one) stands at 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 98.7pts (+253.1% ROI) with those priced in single figures winning 11 of 28 (39.3% SR) for 48.1pts (+171.9% ROI), of which those running in Class 4 contests are 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 32.9pts (+548.9% ROI).

The jockey :

Freddie Tylicki is 7 from 31 on turf here at Lingfield with that 22.6% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 18.6pts at a decent rate of return (+60% ROI). Those runners priced at 4/1 and shorter (where I'm sure we'll be!) are 6 from 11 (54.6% SR) for 9.7pts (+88.2% ROI) and of those 11 runners, he's 3/5 on 3 yr olds and 2/3 in the month of September.

And together :

Over the last three seasons the Vaughan/Tylicki partnership has been well worth following, despite there not being a massive amount of bets. 13 winners from 40 is a healthy 32.5% strike rate and the 22.4pts (+56% ROI) profit aren't to be sniffed at either. Those 40 runners can be further analysed as follows...

  • handicappers are 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 13.4pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • females are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 26.1pts (+144.8% ROI)
  • 3yr olds are 10/17 (58.8% SR) for 21.5pts (+126.5% ROI)

The Vaughan / Tylicki / 3yr old handicappers combo is worth 8 winners from 12 (66.7% SR) for 19.4pts (+161.7% ROI), from which female runners are 3/5 (60% SR) for 10.5pts (+210% ROI) profit. Four of the five females ran at this 6f trip, producing 3 winners (75% SR) and 11.5pts (+287.5% ROI) profit.

And finally, the horse :

Mehronissa won on her only previous run on good ground and has finished 1st and 2nd in two attempts at today's trip. She is 2 from 4 (1512) on a straight track, 2 from 3 (112) at this Class 4 level, 2 from 3 (112) in fields of 7 to 9 runners and also 2 from 3 (112) on turf when ridden by Freddie Tylicki, suggesting she'll be well suited by today's conditions.

She also has the benefit of a 2lb weight for age allowance which effectively puts her a pound lighter than when beaten by just three quarters of a length last time out. I took my 3/1 BOG about Mehronissa from Bet365, but with at least five other firms matching this price, you really should...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th September 2015

    1. Everyone calls me Paul

      again a little strange…the reason given was the going, but the BBC website (plus the going report) says they’ve had minimal rain there. That’s 3 out of the last 7 have been non-runners. Ah well, reduces my liabilities from pretty high levels today.
      Paul

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.