Stat of the Day, 12th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2015

It was, I'm afraid, another case of picking a well-backed loser on Friday as Toofi failed to concede 11lbs to the eventual winner, finishing second and beaten by a length and a half.

Our 4/1 was eroded down to 5/2 favouritism by the off and after being held up for a run, Toofi was unable to overhaul the winner.

Saturday represents my last shot at glory for this week and my selection runs in the...

3.35 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

This is a six furlong, Class 4, 3yo+ turf handicap for fillies and I'm going the the 3/1 BOG Mehronissa, trained by Ed Vaughan and to be ridden by Freddie Tylicki.

The trainer :

Ed Vaughan's record in 6f handicaps over the last six seasons (inc this one) stands at 12/39 (30.8% SR) for 98.7pts (+253.1% ROI) with those priced in single figures winning 11 of 28 (39.3% SR) for 48.1pts (+171.9% ROI), of which those running in Class 4 contests are 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 32.9pts (+548.9% ROI).

The jockey :

Freddie Tylicki is 7 from 31 on turf here at Lingfield with that 22.6% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 18.6pts at a decent rate of return (+60% ROI). Those runners priced at 4/1 and shorter (where I'm sure we'll be!) are 6 from 11 (54.6% SR) for 9.7pts (+88.2% ROI) and of those 11 runners, he's 3/5 on 3 yr olds and 2/3 in the month of September.

And together :

Over the last three seasons the Vaughan/Tylicki partnership has been well worth following, despite there not being a massive amount of bets. 13 winners from 40 is a healthy 32.5% strike rate and the 22.4pts (+56% ROI) profit aren't to be sniffed at either. Those 40 runners can be further analysed as follows...

  • handicappers are 8/18 (44.4% SR) for 13.4pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • females are 7/18 (38.9% SR) for 26.1pts (+144.8% ROI)
  • 3yr olds are 10/17 (58.8% SR) for 21.5pts (+126.5% ROI)

The Vaughan / Tylicki / 3yr old handicappers combo is worth 8 winners from 12 (66.7% SR) for 19.4pts (+161.7% ROI), from which female runners are 3/5 (60% SR) for 10.5pts (+210% ROI) profit. Four of the five females ran at this 6f trip, producing 3 winners (75% SR) and 11.5pts (+287.5% ROI) profit.

And finally, the horse :

Mehronissa won on her only previous run on good ground and has finished 1st and 2nd in two attempts at today's trip. She is 2 from 4 (1512) on a straight track, 2 from 3 (112) at this Class 4 level, 2 from 3 (112) in fields of 7 to 9 runners and also 2 from 3 (112) on turf when ridden by Freddie Tylicki, suggesting she'll be well suited by today's conditions.

She also has the benefit of a 2lb weight for age allowance which effectively puts her a pound lighter than when beaten by just three quarters of a length last time out. I took my 3/1 BOG about Mehronissa from Bet365, but with at least five other firms matching this price, you really should... here for the betting on the 3.35 Lingfield

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Here is today's racecard.

5 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th September 2015

    1. Everyone calls me Paul

      again a little strange…the reason given was the going, but the BBC website (plus the going report) says they’ve had minimal rain there. That’s 3 out of the last 7 have been non-runners. Ah well, reduces my liabilities from pretty high levels today.

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