Stat of the Day, 12th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th September 2014

Blue Waltz led her six rivals a merry dance (sorry!) on Thursday afternoon as she fairly bolted home to win by five lengths. Full credit to jockey Andrea Atzeni for a cracking ride too.

He kept her handy, but not too involved, before pulling out wide to avoid the jostling for position approaching the furlong pole. Once out into clear space, he asked her to go and win the race and she with plenty to spare. A win by five lengths easing down was quite impressive on handicap debut and a small drift out to 7/2 gave us a bonus half point.

We're back in front for the week and I hope to increase the monthly profits with my selection in Friday's...

7.15 Salisbury:

And what might look like a bit of a punt, backing an unraced 3yr old filly in this 1m2f, Class 5 maiden for 3 yr olds, but I've got enough statistical data to have aroused my interest!

The horse in question is Tamasha, who is trained by Ralph Beckett, about whom I've got a stack of numbers for you to backup my selection. 😀

Firstly, if you had backed every single one of his 2631 runners since the start of 2008, you would be sitting on profits of £5518 to £10 level stakes, that's an ROI of 21%, which is pretty remarkable from so many runners. And this is possible because 16% (422 horses) were winners. Oh, and that doesn't count his two from eight (11/8 & 25/1 winners) on Thursday!

In non-handicap contests that record improves to 229 winners from 1370 (16.7% SR) and the level stakes profits of 429.5pts is worth over 31p in the pound on every bet.
His 3 yr olds have won 235 of 1387 races (16.9% SR) for 257.5pts (+18.6% ROI).
Horses making their yard debut are 52/394 (13.2% SR) for 125.9pts (+32% ROI), whilst those making their racing debut have won 45 of 359 times (12.5% SR) for 96.1pts (+26.8% ROI).

If we then revisit the 229/1370 stat in non-handicaps, his record in maidens is 180 winners from 1001 runners, an 18% strike rate yielding 282pts profit at a return of 28.2%.

In 3yo maiden races, his runners are 39/170 (22.9% SR) for 78.6pts (+46.2% ROI) with yard debutants wining 9 of 47 (19.2% ROI) for 62.5pts (+133% ROI) and horses running for the first time won 8 of 44 (18.2% SR) for 45.5pts (+103.5% ROI) profit.

Obviously the further you refine the categories, the smaller the sample size, but the numbers are consistent throughout and Mr Beckett is profitable to follow blindly.

We should also consider his recent record here at Salisbury, where 9 of his last 40 runners (in just over a year) have been successful and have produced almost 14.5pts profit at an ROI of just over 36%.

I can't tell you much about Tamasha herself, being the unknown quantity trhat she is, but you may have heard of her parents. She was sired by no less than Sea The Stars, whose progeny have performed really well since Juvenile Lead was the first to hit the track back in June of last year.

To date Sea The Stars' offspring have won 46 of 252 races (18.25% SR) and have already made 81.6pts profit at an ROI of 32.4%. Those progeny running at 1m to 1m4f are 35/182 (19.2% SR) for 78.6pts (+43.2% ROI) profit.

Tamasha's mother is Tamarind, who won two of her five career outings with both wins coming over 1m4f, including a Group 3 success, so based on her parents, our selection shouldn't be found wanting for stamina. Tamarind herself is a sister to Crimson Tide, himself a Group 3 winner.

There's basically class and stamina throughout Tamasha's breeding and she'll be ably assisted by Silvestre de Sousa here, who not only has a good record here at Salisbury, he's also 7/19 on the Beckett 3 yr olds.

It is a bit of a punt, but I'd like to call it an educated one, based on the information above and all things considered, I'm happy to split my daily point stake with an E/W bet on Tamasha at 13/2 BOG with Bet365. As always, I do recommend that you...

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16 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th September 2014

      1. Blokeshead

        I know Chris – I grew up on Hello Cheeky and I’m Sorry I Haven’t A Clue (still the best programme on the radio, even if the modern day PC Brigade now apparently have it in their sights) so I know all about terrible puns. However, you must also be aware that it’s traditional for your audience to groan audibly and protest (or at least pretend to protest!) loudly.

        So …. keep them coming (along with all the excellent and far more useful tips and advice), but don’t expect us all to sit here and smile placidly at the puns! 🙂

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      I don’t think so, to be honest.
      It’s not a great race, the stats back up the selection and the breeding looks good.

      Win or lose, we got “first run” 😀

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Without going into the selection process too much…
      I fancy Brisk as the most likely winner of a race where Tamasha offered excellent value as an E/W bet, based on statistical data.

  1. bigvern63

    Great advice Chris, more than saved the day as backed to win @ 4s & was doubled up with Matt’s strong fancy from his Donny review, Badr Al Badoor. You can’t beat the geegeez boys when it comes to tipping!!

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