Stat of the Day, 12th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 12th October 2013

Our 100/30 shot Harristown had little/no friends in the market yesterday as he drifted out to a race SP of 5/1. He made an absolute mockery of those odds under a good, patient ride from Kielan Woods, who kept him handy without really exerting him. He took the lead between the last two hurdles, set off for home and was uncatchable, winning by a good 9 lengths.

He could probably have won by far more had he wanted to, but it was a welcome 5pt boost to the bank, which I aim to build on this evening in the...

8.20 Wolverhampton

Where I've taken 3/1 BOG with BetVictor about Marco Botti's filly More Aspen.

Marco has a good recent record with his more-fancied runners here at Wolverhampton and what I mean by more fancied are the ones running at odds of 6/1 or under. In fact in the 2011/13 period he has had 47 winners from his 138 runners in that price bracket here at Wolverhampton: a 34.1% strikerate and level stakes profits of 46.2pts are the equivalent of 33.5% of all stakes put down.

Without restricting the odds parameters too far (and inviting any accusations of backfitting!), if we disregard those who ran below 13/8 (we wouldn't pick those for SotD anyway!) the figures evolve to 34/117, a slightly lower strike rate of 29.1%, but an increased ROI of 36.4% courtesy of a 42.6pts profit.

Marco actually runs two horses here this evening: 9/2 shot Tez has a decent enough chance on his handicap debut in the 6.20 race, but I'm siding with the later runner: More Aspen.

More Aspen also fits the bill for another subsection of horses that I like to back, the ones i dub the "Back To Form" horses. Regular readers are probably bored of reading the rules of this microsystem by now, but just in case...

The horse should have won last time out and within the last month. That win should have come after a string (minimum of 3) of unplaced efforts and will be fancied enough by the market to be sent off at 6/1 or under.

More Aspen's form line reads 5551, three modest efforts in 6f maidens, before scoring on her nursery debut here over course and distance 22 days ago on her first step up to this 7f trip. She won pretty cosily that day and the manner in which she ran on to close the race out suggested to me that a 6lb rise wouldn't be enough to stop her today.

Horses fitting this "Back To Form" profile on the all-weather have 48 of 158 races (30.4%) this year, recording level stakes profits of 57.3pts, or 36.2% of stakes. the figures for Wolverhampton alone are 16/52 = 30.8% SR and 16.75pts (+32.2% ROI) profit.

If we imposed a fairly restrictive (but similar to our usual SotD range) set of odds ie 5/2 to 6/1, the 2013 results are as follows:
All UK A/W Meetings: 30 winners from 107 = a 28% strike rate yielding 62pts profit for an ROI of 57.97%
Just Wolverhampton: 11 winners from 30 = a 36.67% strike rate yielding 25.85pts profit for an ROI of 86.17%

As at the top, I'm on More Aspen at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, but those odds are quite widely available, so my advice would be to...

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