Stat of the Day, 12th November 2012

Stat of the Day 12/11

Stat of the Day 12/11

Stat of the Day, 12th November 2012

No play yesterday, as both of Anthony Honeyball's runners were withdrawn in quick succession yesterday morning. And so, on to my least favourite racing day of the week: Monday's fayre is invariably poor and today doesn't look great either. Limerick has been abandoned, Carlisle's track is pretty boggy and the average field size is just 6 runners. In fact, the only race with 8 runners is the bumper, so we're steering clear of this track today. With small fields, we have no leeway for an E/W bet and there's also less chance of beating the market in the manner we've been accustomed to.

With all that in mind, we head off to the village of Rolleston in Nottinghamshire for a Class 3 Handicap Hurdle over 2 miles and 4.5 furlongs and the going is said to be Good (quite a rarity at present!). We're expecting a total of 11 runners to jump off in the...

2.15 Southwell

I decided to look for a decent E/W bet this morning, based on the lack of quality/small choice of races presented to me and I was really left with just 4 races to consider. On closer inspection of the Southwell declarations, I noticed that Mrs Lawney Hill has had a reasonable amount of success at getting her horses placed here. Her career record at Southwell is 6 wins and 6 places from 27 attempts, yet in the last two years alone her place strike rate has risen to an excellent 50%, with 8 of 16 making the frame in that period.

Mrs Hill has just the one runner today: Brough Academy.

Brough Academy is a lightly raced 6yr old who has never finished outside of the first four in any of  his six races to date. He contested 3 bumpers in July/August last year, followed by 2011/12 winter campaign of just three hurdle events. His full record currently reads 231214, which offers a small profit at level stakes and a place strike rate of 83%. In fact he would probably have finished second last time out to maintain a 100% record, had he not been quite badly hampered to a virtual standstill, yet regained his composure to take 4th place, just 2.5 lengths behind the eventual runner-up.

His last two contests were both at Fontwell where he was partnered by David Bass, who takes the ride again today. David is no stranger to Southwell either, as he also possesses a decent record around this track, where he has a win strike rate of just under 30% and a place strike rate of some 65%.  Today will actually be the 10th time that David has ridden one of Mrs Hill's horses at Southwell, having won two of the previous nine with a further three place finishes.

So, bearing in mind the place records of the trainer and the jockey here at the track and the general consistency of the horse itself, an E/W bet seems the most prudent if we can achieve a reasonable price.

Having checked the markets at 9.55am, 12/1 BOG was available with Bet365 , Stan James and BetVictor, so there should be little problems for you to get the same as I'm taking, as my play today is 0.5pts E/W on Brough Academy at 12/1 BOG, but you can always...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.15 Southwell

15 thoughts on “Stat of the Day, 12th November 2012

  1. glenn hussey

    poor racing today so playing safe….1-10 Southwell KILVERGAN BOY…2nd last time out and the 1st and 3rd in that race both won next time out. generally 6/4 so 1pt win advised

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Glenn,
      I’m not personally sure how backing a 6/4 favourite in that race is playing it safe and also this blog is for Stat of the Day, not just a random selection.

      Chris

  2. Chris

    Is this SoTD or a random tipping service???? Is it possible to keep tips and comments relating to other horses/races for elsewhere, I think most people would like to comment on SoTD. Sorry for playing Mr Judgemental and no offence intended to anyone but I think its best to stick to SoTD on the SoTD thread.

  3. Matteo

    In fact this is not a random tipping service but a confused application of statistic without a sincere reasoning. If your followers study your selections, instead backing them blindly, they could avoid more than half of the losing selections. During the last SoTD terrible 30 days I’d agree only with friday selection Beforeall, which was a great disappointment!
    I love your site and I’ll continue to follow it but be clear guys, there’s a lot of people who don’t know nothing about horseracings and they entrust everything to these free-tips sites.
    I’m italian and sometimes SoTD seem to be written by a Neapolitan (I hope you know someone) who takes bribes from the bookies to mislead punters.
    I don’t want to offend because you don’t deserve it but this concept of value to me is s**t, everything that is won is value (sounds a bit superficial but it’s not the case that i put to explain) not 50 losing tips at odds of 12/1.
    i hope that this streak will end soon and in the meantime wok well (or better)!

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Matteo,

      We are not a free tips site. I’m not quite sure how many more times both Matt & myself have to say this.
      SotD is merely a suggestion that the statisitcs point towards a good performance on the given day.

      As for the often-raised subject of value, you seem to have missed the point completely. I totally disagree with your assertion that all winners represent value.
      4/6 on the toss of coin offers no value, even if you did call it right, because you’d lose money in the long run. Yet another point we’ve been at pains to get across.

      You’re clearly either not listening to us or you’re not understanding us and as for the reference to being Neapolitan, I do like the ice cream, but that’s as close to Napoli as I get. 😀

      Chris

    2. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Matteo

      You need to be clear as well. The same ‘non stats’ which put us 115 points in front (even after this run) will continue to be the stats used.

      The problem – as you’ll know – is that if we wait for 100% cast iron logic, it’s far too late to take anything except 1/20 on the selection.

      You’re not obliged to follow the SotD feature, and I’m very pleased you enjoy other elements of the site, but please, we don’t tell you how to do your job… so a little respect would be very much appreciated.

      Matt

    3. Matt Bisogno Post author

      Oh yes, and if you don’t get the concept of value, then you don’t get it. But if you need to bet more than once, then you MUST have value on your side. Otherwise you may as well head to the casino. You might win on a spin, or the turn of a card, but you CANNOT EVER win in the long term there.

      That’s the difference between ‘a winner is value’ and ‘value is value’.

      Matt

  4. Matteo

    I’m sorry that you have not accepted the comment, I was a little nipping but it was not my intention to offend but to make a constructive criticism or launch a starting point for a discussion.
    If you believe I’m a stupid italian thief you’re completely wrong

    1. Chris Worrall Post author

      Matteo,

      We accept all forms of feedback, but we’re not glued to our keyboards 24/7 on SotD, we have lots of other work on our hands too.
      Therefore, there is sometimes a delay between you sending a message and it actually appearing on screen.

      Chris

      PS you’re the only person to mention Italian thieves. I probably wouldn’t resort to such petty name-calling.

  5. Dunc

    Oh dear, here we go again. Do chris and co really have to put the yearly stats up again to show how profitable this (free) service has been. I’ve been lucky enough to be well ahead since stod was launched last year. But if you don’t fancy the horse selected, don’t back it!

  6. Chris

    The stats talk the talk and the profits walk the walk! I think that’s right!!
    Great work Geegeez, Great comments, feedback, info, site etc.

    You gotta get through the bad times so the good times are so much sweeter which makes the bad times not so bad after all.

  7. Matteo

    I have to apologize for:
    1) calling this a free-tips site, the most part of those are rubbish, you know better than me…
    this is serious stuff from all points of view.
    2) writing the second comment, I was wrong because I initially saw the message in a “in acceptance” status and immediately after it was all gone. I thought you’ve deleted the comment, as often happen when you comment elsewhere, and I quickly wrote that nonsense.
    3) being rude with people who is 15 older than me and from which I can only learn, certainly about horseracing!

    My words were written by the frustration to see another loser and not because I’ve heavily backed it as many do. Re-reading my comment I’m conscious it was really stupid, I was angry because I felt you’re losing confidence and I don’t want it. Probably I’m missing the real SotD purpose and I’m sorry for using bad words. I really have much respect for you and you are one of the few free punter’s sureness, especially for a foreigner UK horseracing fan.
    I have to thank you Matt for your wonderful flat meetings analysis, you’ve helped me a lot and I’ve often won consistently.
    And Chris how can forget Aneyeforaneye, happened on one of the highest punting day of the year to me and I heavily backed your selection at 11/1 that day because I was extremely confident. Thanks a lot.

    I’m only 28yo and I follow horseracing every day from about 2 years (work permitting), I’ve started gambling from 5 years with football matches and compared to you I’m a suckling. Despite this I perfectly understand your concept of value and there’s no doubt that your approach pays on the long term but I think everyone has a different way of gambling and I try to concentrate on constancy though sometimes I have to back an odds-on favourite. To me, according to my character, constancy is everything, even if some days it takes you to win only 5€. The aspects of gambling which I think are more complicated are the psychological processes, the way you feel when you gamble, how you woke up that day, how your life is going (assumed that you know to predict horses). I’ve learned it from experience, losing money and cursing god. I can’t use a fixed method, a fixed stake and standardized approaches because ideas and intuitions have different weights to each. Sometimes I feel safe to back 100€ on and odds-on to double the money, other days I feel the magnified nicholls/walsh favourite will never win and sometimes I feel to back without fear a 20/1 shot.
    I think value is when you feel it, independently from the odds.
    Grant me 2 little examples:
    1) One is this Sunday Italian football match Atalanta-Inter, I know that compare football to horseracing is blasphemy but I think some gambling principles are the same:
    Atalanta to win 3.25, Inter to win 2.30, draw 3.10, Inter came from 10 consecutive wins, 6 were away, formations were without major defections, value (I’m talking of football and you know that odds at evens are considered value) was in every direction and according to statistics it was x or 2 until death, someone would have played his mother if possible. I’ve backed 200€ on Atalanta to win because there were all the conditions (also thanks to the media exaggerations) to see a surprising result and so it was, Atalanta won 3-2 and bye bye statistics. I’m not a phenomenon in fact I was very lucky but I had the right intuitions too and I was rewarded. I think statistic is fundamental but you have to know how to use it and especially how to play against them.
    2) The second, a middle October Italian G3 racing, there was an horse called Noble Hacky:
    Italian bookmakers (mafia property and accordingly government property) offered this unbeatable horse at 8/15 and I saw it incredibly priced on bet365 (which never price Italian racings) at 8/5, I dove in head on it and the same trick has happened this Sunday on the France course of Auteuil and I noticed it happen very frequently. How can you say that it is not value?!
    I know I’m writing foregone words to your hears or maybe some rubbish but actually it’s my way of thinking and in the last year I was satisfyingly profitable. Maybe it is an illusory moment and I’m wrong anyway, so let’s give me some advices and tell me what you think, I’ve not seen much compared to professionals like you, rather I’ve not seen anything.
    I’m sorry for my English, I have certainly explained some things not as I would like but this is the best I can do.

    Chris you know well that world is full of commonplaces or stupid stereotypes but I think everything, exaggerated or not, stems from a truth. I’m the first to say that most of the Italians are thieves (not in a literally sense but in this country if there’s “something to eat” we eat without shame even if there’s not the necessity, if we could put something in pocket, without shame too, we do it, it’s in our culture) and I’m not wrong.

    To Dunc, I’ve been lucky to follow SotD from the beginning, results are fantastic but I was complaining about the last period and I feel that something is breaking and I don’t want it.
    I’m extremely selective, don’t worry, I don’t back every selection because I always submit them for review.

    I have dwelt enough, forgive me.

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